Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
Can I ask what if questions about results under different scenarios ?
How long do you need for your briefout ? 30 minutes ? More ?
Oh , how do I monitor to assure that my decision is implemented ?
Are you going to give me intelligible big-picture estimates as a function of major variables ? Tradeoff plots ? Measures of robustness ( e . g ., regret )? Will I have to just listen , or can I interact ? Will there be real-time responses to questions or requests for another six months ?
How am I going to interact along the way ? Initial plan , interim discussion , final discussion ? Are you going to have results in layers of detail so that I ( or my staff ) can get into details where necessary ? Will the study be documented intelligibly ?
Recognizing that our action will be an experiment and that we will likely learn from experience and must adapt , perhaps in a major way , how should we plan to monitor and anticipate such adaptations if needed ?
It is not the role of analysis and analysts to create deus ex machina in the form of analyses that will resolve policy choices . That is rightly the job of elected officials and their appointees . But analysts can illuminate the policy trade-off space : which short-term actions ( and preparation for later adaptations ) will likely achieve long-term policy objectives despite uncertainties and disagreements now and the likelihood of unexpected developments ? If analysts can do this , they may help bring about a needed shift in culture .
Acknowledgements
This paper was possible thanks to support from the RAND Center for Decision Making under Uncertainty , within the Pardee RAND Graduate School . We thank Andrew Parker , David Groves , and two anonymous reviewers for comments on the draft .
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Cole , H . S . D ., Freeman , C ., Jahoda , M .,