Annual Review & Outlook 2025 Maritime
Subject to the wind
Project cargo optimism buffeted by policy ‘ unpredictability ’
The big picture : A massive slate of energy , infrastructure and industrial projects in the US , including chip manufacturing , liquefied natural gas , power generation , carbon capture , wind energy and more , is fueling optimism among project cargo logistics providers . However , uncertainty around potential changes in government funding , focus and regulations , including the threat of new tariffs , are tempering that optimism , particularly for projects related to clean energy .
By Janet Nodar
Projects related to renewable energy such as solar and wind may be delayed or canceled by the Trump administration . Shutterstock . com
www . joc . com
A look back : As a range of energy and manufacturing projects gained traction in 2024 , project cargo shippers and forwarders sounded downright chipper . “ Things are breaking loose ,” one shipper told the Journal of Commerce . Many US projects had been galvanized by billions of dollars in tax credits , grants and loans made available by the Biden administration , including $ 369 billion in Inflation Reduction Act ( IRA ) funding , $ 412 in Department of Energy ( DOE ) loan authorizations that includes some IRA funds and $ 39 billion in CHIPS and Science grants intended to boost investment . New chip manufacturing
Renewables dominate current , future power investment
North American energy generation investment , actual and forecast , in USD billions
USD billions
100
80
100 60
40
20
0 L 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Conventional power generation Renewable power generation Transmission
Distribution
Notes : Forecasts made prior to 2024 election . " Conventional " category includes gas , coal , hydropower , oil and nuclear . " Renewable " includes solar and onshore and offshore wind .
Source : S & P Global Commodity Insights
© 2024 S & P Global
L projects worth nearly $ 450 billion had been announced by mid-2024 , according to the Semiconductor Industry Association . Capital spending in North America on just renewable power generation was expected to reach $ 73.2 billion in 2024 , $ 80.9 billion in 2025 and $ 92.5 billion in 2026 , according to forecasts compiled by S & P Global , parent company of the Journal of Commerce , prior to the US presidential election . Capital spending on conventional power generation , including nuclear and gas , was forecast at $ 8.6 billion in 2024 , $ 7.1 billion in 2025 and $ 8 billion in 2026 . The projects supported by this spending will take years to roll out , but many supported by Biden-era funding could be slowed , thwarted or redirected by policy changes imposed by a second Trump administration .
A look ahead : US energy and climate regulations and policies are expected to shift with the incoming administration , although the magnitude of that shift is still unknown . “ The most likely trajectory for the next four years is one of looser regulation , tighter trade restrictions and championing of fossil fuels ,” noted a report from S & P Global Energy View . While a true repeal of the IRA is not possible , Congress can undo , modify or slow-walk some portions of the program . DOE loans are more vulnerable , as billions in allocated funding were still tied up in pre-closure negotiations when Donald Trump won the election , according to Kenneth Hansen , a partner in the projects group of Norton Rose Fulbright . Trump ’ s eventual Secretary of Energy — he has nominated oil industry executive Chris Wright — can cancel DOE applications that have not reached closing provisions status for any reason , Hansen told the Journal of Commerce . Once contracts are signed , awards are difficult to pull back , but as things stand now , there are “ strong reasons for being concerned that [ this funding ] is at risk ,” he said .
The next inflection : Breakbulk and project cargo shippers are also bracing for potential effects from Trump-era tariffs . While costs matter , a more fundamental concern is “ unpredictability ,” said a project shipper who asked not to be identified . Project supply chains take years to establish and can ’ t be reconfigured quickly in response to increased import tariffs . Some manufactured pieces take two years from design to completion and are manufactured in specialized yards around the world . “ We can ’ t navigate around the tariffs ,” the shipper said . “ The companies that can make what we need are in the single digits , and it ’ s a manufacturing base that does not exist in the US .”
email : janet . nodar @ spglobal . com
January 6 , 2025 | Journal of Commerce 27