Maritime 2025 Annual Review & Outlook
Hazy forecast
US policy uncertainty clouds MPV / HL outlook
By Susan Oatway
The big picture : The security crisis in the Red Sea and drought conditions in the Panama Canal get all the headlines , but it ’ s the new trade lanes needed to adjust for these disruptions that are boosting ton-mile demand and squeezing capacity in the multipurpose and heavy-lift ( MPV / HL ) sector . Those dynamics are expected to keep MPV / HL rates at current levels through the first quarter of 2025 , but as new tonnage from the competing container and roll-on / roll-off ( ro / ro ) sectors hits the water , nonheavy-lift MPV rates are likely to weaken .
the existing order book of 175 MPVs and conservative estimates for newbuilding investment , the MPV / HL fleet is forecast to grow an average of just 1.7 % per year through 2026 , according to a Journal of Commerce analysis that accounts for potential order slippage , additional new orders and demolition sales .
The next inflection : Outside investment for project carriers is scarce , primarily because future project cargo flows are so difficult to predict . This could lead to a further tightness in heavy-lift capable modern tonnage over the next few years and a corresponding rise in charter rates for this vessel type . Of particular concern for some shippers is a lack of newbuilding deck carriers , vessels particularly suited for moving large , heavy pieces of equipment including modules . For non-heavy-lift breakbulk shippers , the avalanche of container ships , bulk carriers and ro / ro vessels being delivered over 2025 and 2026 will keep competition for their cargoes high , likely weakening MPV rates .
email : susan . oatway @ spglobal . com
A look back : The increase in project cargo demand that most market players expected 12 months ago failed to materialize , with total seaborne dry cargo demand rising just 0.8 % in 2024 , according to S & P Global Market Intelligence . However , increased ton-mile demand caused by ongoing draft restrictions in the Panama Canal and the Red Sea crisis diverting vessels away from the Suez Canal kept tonnage availability tight and charter rates elevated throughout the year . As of November , the latest month for which data is available , daily charter rates for 12,500-deadweight ton ( dwt ) “ F-Type ” ships stood at $ 13,157 , up 12.8 % from the beginning of the year and 7.8 % from the same month in 2023 , according to the Toepfer Multipurpose Index . This was 43 % below the pandemic peak recorded in July 2022 but still twice the pre-COVID average .
A look ahead : If US President-elect Donald Trump delivers his agenda as promised , energy production and generation-related general cargo demand could shift dramatically . But questions remain as to which of Trump ’ s stated policy goals — which include repealing Biden administration rules for power generation and weakening methane emission standards for the oil and gas sector — will actually be implemented . For now , forecasts for project cargo remain strong across both the energy and construction sectors , with the growing power needs of datacenters expected to drive additional freight volumes . Of the 5,216 energy-related projects currently under discussion globally , just 19 % have reached final investment decision , according to an October report from the Energy Industry Council . The remaining 81 % equates to a significant amount of potential cargo in limbo , adding to the uncertainty for project cargo demand and further discouraging newbuild vessel orders beyond capacity replacement . Demolition levels are also expected to remain subdued as cargo demand is high enough to keep overage tonnage employed despite increasing carbon taxes and related regulations . Given
Total seaborne dry cargo demand ticked up just 0.8 % in 2024 . Paullawat / Shutterstock . com
MPV / HL fleet growth to average 1.7 % per year through 2026
Multipurpose and heavy-lift vessel capacity delivered vs . demolished , by numbers of vessels , with net fleet loss / gain
Number of vessels
150
100 100 50
30
-50 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 L 2020 2023 2026 2028 ( f ) ( f )
MPV delivered MPV demolished HL capable delivered HL capable demolished Net fleet loss / gain
Notes : Heavy-lift capable maximum combinable lift > 240mt SWL Data as of November 2024
Source : Journal of Commerce , S & P Global © 2024 S & P Global
L
26 Journal of Commerce | January 6 , 2025 www . joc . com