ECONOMY AND MARKET
methanol and hydrogen, two key vectors for circular chemicals and future low-carbon fuels.
ITALY LEADS EUROPEAN INVESTMENTS The mapping of European projects confirms that the continent is moving at an ever-increasing pace. As many as 64 projects were identified by Agici, with a predominance of pyrolysis-based plants. The most significant data concerns Italy, which, with 12 active projects, ranks first in Europe, ahead of Germany and France. This is a significant lead because it is associated with a diversified industrial structure. In fact, unlike other European countries, Italy is simultaneously investing in the three main chemical recycling technologies. However, there is also a downside: approximately one in six projects in Europe has been suspended or cancelled. The reason lies in a still incomplete regulatory framework, the limited availability of feedstock, and the uncertainty surrounding the mechanisms for recognising the so-called“ Green premium.”
PYROLYSIS: A GROWING MARKET DESPITE SIGNIFI- CANT UPSTREAM LIMITATIONS The case of pyrolysis represents perhaps the most delicate point in the report. Corepla currently provides approximately 140,000 tons per year of polyolefin mix suitable for pre-treatment to obtain feedstock for pyrolysis plants. Of this volume, only 80,000 – 110,000 tons are actually convertible, resulting in an annual output of between 54,000 and 77,000 tons of pyrolysis oil. The gap with potential demand is striking: the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation( PPWR) envisages a significant increase in recycled content in non-PET packaging in the next decades, pushing Italy’ s demand for pyrolysis oil to 830,000 tpy by 2030 and to over 2 million tpy by 2040. The market is therefore faced with a structural shortage. There is no lack of technology or interest from down-
Pyrolysis: costs, revenues, and break-even price
ITEM Volume Unit Item Volume Unit Available feedstock( Italy, estimate) 80 – 110 kt / y Producible pyrolysis oil 54 – 77 kt / y Average operating cost( OPEX) 650 – 750 €/ t oil Feedstock pre-treatment cost 90 – 140 €/ t waste Expected revenue from the sale of oil 850 – 950 €/ t Beak-even price 900 – 1,000 €/ t Avoided emissions( estimate) 1.7 – 2.1 t CO₂ eq / t oil Sweden 1 1 Others EU 11 3 Europe total 43 13
stream operators, but the physical volumes of polyolefins in waste are limited. This situation will tend to support the prices of recyclates, improving the economic sustainability of plants but generating higher costs along the value chain.
GASIFICATION: SUSTAINABLE METHANOL AS AN IN- DUSTRIAL OPPORTUNITY The framework outlined for gasification confirms that the sector offers significant scope for development, despite the constraints in terms of feedstock. If Italy were to utilise the more than 250,000 tons of RDF it currently exports annually in a dedicated plant, it could generate approximately 115,000 tons of sustainable methanol. This is still a modest amount compared to European demand, which by 2030— driven by the FuelEU Maritime Regulation— is expected to rise to approximately 3.2 million tpy. Here too, the gap between supply and demand will tend to support market interest and plant profitability.
WHY CHEMICAL RECYCLING CAN GIVE A COMPETI- TIVE EDGE TO ITALY A key point in the Agici report concerns what is needed to concretely launch chemical recycling in Italy. Beyond the investments already underway, the sector requires a clear regulatory framework capable of giving certainties to operators. The approval of a specific end-of-waste decree for pyrolysis feedstock, the clear definition of mass balance criteria, and the regulatory recognition of pyrolysis gas are essential steps to stabilise the market. Equally important is the development of coordinated industrial plans avoiding plant overcapacity in the face of limited feedstock and incorporating chemical recycling into a national strategy that integrates waste management into the process industry. Finally, the competitiveness of future plants will also depend on carefully calibrated incentive programmes capable of offsetting the impact of the European plastic levy and supporting start-up operating costs.
Italian technology plast / June-July 2026
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Gasification: costs, revenues, and break-even price
ITEM Volume Unit
RDF exported from Italy( potential feedstock)
256 kt / y
Sustainable methanol producible 115 kt / y Plant’ s average OPEX 430 – 520 €/ t methanol Expected revenue from the sale of methanol
850 – 950 €/ t
Expected gate fee( decisive item) 84 – 200 €/ t RDF Break-even price( without incentives) 908 €/ t methanol Avoided emissions( RED III estimate) 1.4 – 1.8 t CO 2 eq / t methanol
AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE SEIZED QUICKLY Chemical recycling is not a substitute, but a complementary technology. It is the most promising way to bring Italy closer to European goals, increasing plastic recycling rates and creating new synergies between the waste management, mechanical recycling and chemical industries. The Agici report clearly highlights that the industrial potential already exists: now it is necessary to ensure stability, regulatory certainty, and planning capacity to transform the current momentum into a true competitive edge. Italian companies have demonstrated their willingness to invest; it is now up to the political institutions to create the conditions to make chemical recycling a cornerstone of the plastics industry for the next decade. www. plastmagazine. it