numerous observations along these
lines throughout history would suggest that some learned souls were
aware of the phenomena, although
they had no ability to discern why
it occurred. Confirmation bias was
termed by Peter Wason in 1960.
Briefly, his experiment focused on
participants identifying a rule that
applied to a sequence of three
numbers. Participants generated
their own set of triple numbers
and the experimenter would
tell them if the rule applied
to that set or not.
With this information the
participant then had to
discover the rule. The rule
itself was actually staggeringly simple - any
sequence of numbers that
ascended. Despite this participants had a devil of a
time discovering it.
By studying the participants
creation of number sequences Wason saw that participants
appeared to be testing numbers
that only fit into their hypothesis of
the sequence rule.
The discovery and observation
of confirmation bias was recorded even before psychology as we
know it today existed. Evidence
has been found in the writings
of such varied figures as Dante,
Francis Bacon and even as far back
as Greek historian Thucydides, who
wrote in The Peloponnesian War
‘....for it is a habit
of mankind to
entrust careless hope
what they
long
for,
and to use
sovereign
reason to
thrust
aside
what
they do
not fancy.’
Although
this
is
observation of
what could
be taken as confirmation
bias,
32