INDUSTRY NEWS
Mainland China S & P Global Mobility analysts have rebalanced the outlook on the rapid zero-COVID policy exit , a still-weak economy and ongoing stimulus . With 2022 set at 24.8 million units (+ 3.6 % y / y ), some demand fulfilment has been effectively delayed into 2023-24 . For 2023 , the CNY100-billion extension of NEV incentives and recovering local vehicle production should support domestic sales ; 2023 should see a recovery to 25.9 million units (+ 4.5 % y / y ), according to S & P Global Mobility . The market faces significant uncertainty as COVID infection levels could potentially surge following the ease in COVID rules .
Production recovery momentum eases for 2023
Global light vehicle production in 2022 was expected to finish at 81.8 million units , a hardfought 6.0 % improvement over 2021 levels . For 2023 , S & P Global Mobility forecasts continued growth in output even against a backdrop which looks more challenging than the last 12 months . Light vehicle production levels are expected to rise by 4.0 %, to 85.0 million units .
“ While we entered 2022 imagining a return to pre-pandemic levels of production would be achieved in 2023 , this optimism is now postponed until 2025 at the earliest ,” said the analyst .
In Mainland China , S & P Global Mobility forecasts modest production growth for 2023 of 1.1 per cent , to 26.4 million units . Europe is expected to produce 16.6 million units in 2023 , up from an estimated 15.6 million in 2022 . For the North American region , upside pressure surrounding restocking and fulfilling pent-up demand provides support moving into 2023 , with the forecast set at close to 15.1 million units .
“ Friction in the supply chain remains , not just involving semiconductors but also across labour and logistics — even if it is becoming harder to identify ,” explained the analyst , adding that the structural semiconductor capacity deficit will take years to solve .
“ The average chip content per car is increasing at an accelerated rate because of electrification , and the capacity deficit will resurface as soon as demand from other industries picks up again . The structural chip capacity deficit for cars will only be solved by 2024 at the earliest ,” said Jeremie Bouchaud , Director , Semiconductor , E / E and Autonomy Practice , S & P Global Mobility .
Though semiconductor availability remains an important consideration and continues to impact production operations , demand constraints are expected to play a more fundamental role and accelerate in second-half 2023 and into 2024 , impacting production and influencing the speed and scale of inventory restocking .
Electrification gathers pace
“ 2022 saw many OEMs double down on electrification ambitions for the coming five to 15 years , with 2022 seeing some carmakers dramatically scrambling to catch up . China ’ s NEV policy , Europe ’ s ‘ Fit for 55 ’ and the USA ’ s IRA have moved the goalposts , resulting in electrification becoming firmly embedded in policymakers ’ visions for a greener future for mobility ,” outlined the analyst . It projects global demand for battery electric passenger vehicles is on track to hit almost 10 million units for 2023 , accounting for an estimated 13.3 % of global passenger vehicle demand .
“ As many markets shift to greater levels of electrification , we expect vehicle pricing to be pressured to the upside , presenting a headwind to demand in the short-to-intermediate term . Longer-term questions remain , especially regarding charging infrastructure , grid power , battery supply chains and the appropriate level of policymaker support to help smooth the transition from fossil fuel vehicles to electric vehicles ,” it concluded . n
. spglobal . com / mobility
Image : Shutterstock . com .
Innovation in focus at Global Industrie
Global Industrie will once again take place at Eurexpo in Lyon ( France ), from 7-10 March 2023 , as a global showcase for industrial innovation with more new developments and solutions . The event is under the patronage of the French President , Emmanuel Macron , and plays host to several ministers , elected officials , ambassadors and representatives of the largest European professional organisations in the world of industry .
“ Global Industrie brings together all industry players in one place . Divided into 26 zones , it specialises in fields such as digitalisation and automation ; electronics ; additive manufacturing & 3D printing ; measurement ; robotics ; energy and sustainable development ( to name a few ),” the show organiser commented .
“ Global Industrie will be honoured to host not only the Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Bourgogne Franche-Comté and Seine-et-Marne and CCI France Internationale ( Union of French CCIs abroad ) but also the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Pavilion ; Aveiro Regional Industrial Association ( Portugal ) and AIMMAP ( Associação Dos Industriais Metalúrgicos Metalomecânicos E Afins De Portugal ),” it added .
It incorporates five complementary exhibitions : MIDEST ( industrial subcontracting ); SMART INDUSTRIES ( smart , efficient and digital industry ); INDUSTRIE ( manufacturing technologies and equipment ); TOLEXPO ( solutions and equipment for sheet metalworking ) and MEASUREMENT WORLD . The Global Industrie awards honour new exhibitor innovations .
This year , Global Industrie expects to welcome 2300 exhibitors and an expected 40,000 visitors from 85 countries . Previous editions of the show have been held in even years in Paris and odd years in Lyon , France . This geographical diversification enables it to enhance both its offer and the variety of its visitors . n
:// global-industrie . com / en / home