INDUSTRY NEWS
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Light vehicle market analysis
Global new light vehicle sales will reach nearly 83.6 million units in 2023 , a 5.6 % increase year-over-year , according to a new forecast by analyst S & P Global Mobility . The automotive industry continues to navigate supply-chain challenges while confronted by several markets facing deteriorating economic conditions and fading pent-up demand . As semiconductor availability plays out , demand destruction is expected to take a more fundamental role in 2023 , impacting production and the inventory restocking cycle .
The analyst remains wary on recovery prospects . Destroyed demand is a key feature of the tepid forecast outlook — impacted by a blend of general economic impacts ; higher interest rates ; tight supply chains ; an intensifying affordability squeeze ; higher new-car prices ; weakening consumer confidence and heightened energy price / supply concerns .
Two trailing years of pent-up demand remains , but headwinds risk an orderly release — including patchy recovery patterns for semiconductor supply , energy risks ( especially through the European winter ) and logistics log jams . With the automotive industry already operating at , or near , recessionary levels , the forecast outlook remains mixed at best .
“ 2023 is expected to be a year of recovery , but likely a cautious one as the world approaches a gloomy trio of anniversaries – three years of COVID , two years of semiconductor disruption and one year of Russia-Ukraine war impacts ,” said Colin Couchman , Executive Director , Global Light Vehicle Forecasting , S & P Global Mobility . “ The rapid zero-COVID policy exit in mainland China provides further food for thought .”
Full-year 2022 light vehicle sales , projected to reach nearly 79.2 million units by S & P Global Mobility , represent a 1.3 % decline from 2021 levels .
Market-by-market forecasts
Europe The European automotive industry is suffering supply frictions ; stalling economics ; energy concerns ; higher raw material / component prices and wider security unease . Western / Central European 2022 vehicle sales should post 12.9 million units ( -6.7 % y / y ). Order fulfilment remains a struggle , with long waiting lists , stretched lead times and challenging logistics . For 2023 , the narrative shifts from supply constraints to demand destruction . With a mild recession looming for Western Europe ,
2023 demand is forecasted at 13.9 million units (+ 7.4 % y / y ), according to S & P Global Mobility .
“ For Europe , the evolving electrification transition adds further uncertainty , especially for vehicle prices , model availability , wait-and-see customers and lurking Chinese OEMs ,” Couchman said .
United States U . S . sales volumes are expected to reach 14.8 million units in 2023 , an estimated increase of 7.0 % from the projected 2022 level of 13.8 million units . “ The U . S . auto market is struggling , impacted by supply chain ; labour ; logistics ; inflation and wider economic concerns ,” said Chris Hopson , Manager , North American light vehicle sales forecast , S & P Global Mobility .
“ Ongoing supply chain challenges and recessionary fears will result in a cautious build-back for the market . U . S . consumers are hunkering down , and recovery towards pre-pandemic vehicle demand levels feels like a hard sell . Inventory and incentive activity will be key barometers to gauge potential demand destruction ,” the analyst cautioned .