REGIONAL REPORT
Image: Milard Emmanuel( Unsplash).
growth, the unemployment rate should remain close to four per cent in 2026 – 27. The tax and spending changes that were legislated in 2025 are expected, in the near term, to provide a modest boost to activity and to raise the deficit. The general government deficit is expected to remain in the 7 – 7 ½ per cent of GDP range with debt exceeding 140 per cent of GDP by 2031. The applied effective tariff rate on imports to the U. S. is expected to settle at 7 – 8.5 per cent after recent changes to tariff authority take effect. The net effect of higher tariffs and fiscal policy changes for the current account deficit is a modest decline over the medium-term to around 3½ percent of GDP, well above levels prevailing prior to the pandemic,” outlined the IMF.
Actions are underway to recalibrate or eliminate certain financial regulatory requirements, tailor supervision to the underlying risk of the activity and introduce a regulatory framework for digital assets.
IMF Executive Directors welcomed the strong performance of the U. S. economy supported by exceptionally strong broad‐based productivity growth, expansionary fiscal policies and the impact of policy rate cuts. At the same time, they expressed concerns about the heightened domestic and global uncertainties posed by the significant ongoing policy shifts and the war in the Middle East. Against this background, they emphasised the need for determined actions to address fiscal imbalances and monitor upside risks to inflation and financial vulnerabilities, anchored in the credibility of the U. S.’ s strong institutional framework, which remains a key asset.
IMF Directors reaffirmed their view that international trade has fostered growth and job creation in both the U. S. and overseas. However, they recognized that more needs to be done to eliminate the various policy distortions— both in the U. S. and in other countries— that have led to external imbalances.
IMF Directors expressed concern about
the shift in U. S. trade policy, noting that
Image: Luke Stackpoole( Unsplash). the increase in tariffs and in trade policy uncertainty are expected to reduce U. S. activity and create sizeable negative spillovers on its trading partners. They urged the authorities to work constructively with trading partners to address their concerns over the fairness of the global trading system and to agree on a coordinated reduction in trade restrictions, industrial policy and other distortions. Several IMF Directors also called for greater consideration of global climate objectives in the U. S. administration’ s energy policies.
The IMF expects employment in the U. S. to grow at less than one-half of the pace seen in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic
An eye on metal forming
Metal forming manufacturers expect economic activity to remain mostly stable over the next three months, although expectations have cooled slightly, according to the June 2026 Precision Metalforming Association( PMA) Business Conditions Report. Prepared monthly, PMA’ s report provides an economic indicator for the next three months of manufacturing, sampling 90 metal forming companies in the United
States and Canada. PMA’ s June report shows that 62 % of manufacturers surveyed expect no change in general economic activity in the three months after June( compared to 64 % in May), 24 % predict an increase in activity( down from 26 % in May) and 14 % forecast a decrease in activity( compared to 10 % in May).
“ Metal formers experienced little change in shipping levels in June, with 44 % of those surveyed reporting no change in average daily shipping levels( compared to 47 % in May), 42 % reporting an increase( down from 45 % in
May) and 14 % reporting a decrease( compared to 8 % in May),” said the report.
The June report also shows a decline in expectations for incoming orders over the three months from June 2026, with 45 % of survey respondents expecting no change in orders( down from 55 % in May), 35 % predicting an increase in orders( the same percentage reported in May) and 20 % forecasting a decrease in orders( up from 10 % in May).
In addition, the survey reveals that only 1 % of respondents had workers on short time or layoff in June, the same percentage reported in May, while 54 % are currently expanding their workforce( up from 48 % last month). Twenty-four per cent of respondents reported longer lead times in June( compared to 21 % in May), marking the fourth consecutive month of increases.
“ Although we’ re seeing some moderation in key indicators such as orders and shipping, most manufacturers report stable conditions and are continuing to expand their workforce, underscoring the sector’ s underlying resilience,” said PMA managing director, Mark Getsay.“ A more stable trade environment would help ease uncertainty and support stronger demand as manufacturers navigate a period of moderating expectations.”
PMA is the full-service trade association representing the US $ 137-billion metal forming industry of North America— the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating, spinning, slide forming and roll forming technologies, and other value-added processes. Over 900 member companies also include suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry. n
Image: Pedro Lastra( Unsplash).
ISMR July / August 2026 | ismr. net | 29