“ The IMF projects growth in the U. S. to rise to 2.4 % in 2026, while fading tariff effects and lower oil prices should, it said, bring core PCE inflation back to 2 % during the first half of 2027.”
According to the U. S. Federal Reserve, industrial production in the USA edged up 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 per cent in April. Manufacturing output was unchanged in May after increasing 0.7 per cent in April.
“ Manufacturing output moved sideways in May. Production of durable goods rose 0.8 per cent, with increased output in almost all categories. Within durables, the indexes for wood products, for non-metallic mineral products, for primary metals and for motor vehicles and parts each grew more than 1.0 per cent. Production of non-durable goods fell 0.9 per cent in May, with declines in almost all categories,” it said.
According to S & P Global, the performance of the U. S. manufacturing economy improved again in June, although the pace of growth eased to a three-month low.
“ Both output and new orders rose at slower, but still historically elevated, rates. Growth was commonly linked to new product launches, alongside some reports of pre-orders placed to protect against rising prices. Higher raw material costs drove another steep rise in input costs, albeit one that was softer than May’ s recent high. Selling price inflation also eased, falling to a three-month low. Employment remained a weak point at the end of the second quarter. Job shedding was the fastest since May 2020 and, excluding the [ COVID-19 ] pandemic, was the quickest since October 2009,” it reported.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S & P Global Market Intelligence, added:“ U. S. manufacturers reported a further marked improvement in growth of output and order books in June, according to S & P Global’ s PMI data, extending the growth spurt that has been reported since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Employment was nevertheless cut sharply as firms often sought to offset the rising cost of energy and raw materials. Supply chain delays and upward price pressures continued to be widely reported.”
IMF forecast
MADE IN THE USA
We outline economic and manufacturing trends and forecasts for the United States, along with metalforming activity.
Image: Nik Shuliahin( Unsplash).
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund( IMF) completed its Article IV Consultation for the United States on 1 April 2026.
“ The U. S. economy has performed well in 2025. Growth reached two per cent in 2025 despite major shifts in the policy environment and the government shutdown in the fourth quarter. Strong, broadbased productivity growth has underpinned buoyant economic activity while employment growth has slowed, in part due to sharply lower immigration flows,” it said.
“ Inflation has moved sideways during 2025 as tariffs boosted goods prices while services inflation moderated. The federal fiscal deficit fell from 6.3 per cent of GDP to 5.9 per cent of GDP in fiscal year 2025. General government debt rose to 123.9 per cent of GDP, and the current account deficit remained large at 3.7 per cent of GDP,” continued the IMF.
“ GDP growth is expected to accelerate modestly in 2026 to 2.4 percent( on a q4 / q4 basis). The inflationary impulse from tariffs is expected to wane and oil prices to come down from their currently elevated levels, allowing core PCE inflation to fall back to two per cent during the first half of 2027. The near-term risks to activity and unemployment are broadly balanced but the outlook for global energy prices creates upside risks to inflation,” it added.
Employment and economy
The IMF expects employment in the U. S. to grow at less than one-half of the pace seen in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
“ However, given the ongoing slowing of working-age population
28 | ismr. net | ISMR July / August 2026