REGIONAL REPORT
Over the medium term , a key challenge is tightening labour supply , made more acute by the aging population
Volvo Cars plans to open a new Tech Hub in Krakow , Poland ’ s second-largest city . It will be a key software development centre and play a crucial role in its strategic ambitions to be a fully electric brand by 2030 . to more than outweigh these factors , leaving total investment growth well into positive territory over the forecast horizon . As far as overseas trade is concerned , the easing of supply bottlenecks will probably support export growth . Coupled with a weak import outlook , net exports are projected to contribute positively to growth in 2023 and , to a lesser extent , 2024 .
All in all , after decelerating to 0.4 % in 2023 , GDP growth is expected to bounce back to 2.5 % in 2024 as inflation eases and global economic growth gathers pace .
The World Bank ’ s Economic Update for Poland , released in October 2022 , anticipated a slowdown in economic growth as “ the ongoing war in Ukraine has dimmed prospects of a post-pandemic economic recovery across Europe .”
“ The global economy continues to be weakened by the war through significant disruptions in trade and food and fuel price shocks , all of which are contributing to high inflation and subsequent tightening in global financing conditions . Activity in the euro area , the largest economic partner for emerging and developing economies ( EMDEs ) of Europe and Central Asia , has deteriorated markedly in the second half of 2022 due to distressed supply chains , increased financial strains and declines in consumer and business confidence . The most damaging effects of the invasion , however , are surging energy prices amid large reductions in Russian energy supply ,” it highlighted .
Polish automotive sector
Jakub Faryś , President of the Polish Automotive Industry Association ( PZPM ), shared its outlook on current challenges and opportunities in the Polish automotive sector in the November 2022 SMMT International Update .
“ The pandemic and the semiconductor crisis have taken their toll on passenger car registrations in Europe and Poland . Registration figures dropped by approx . 20 per cent on average versus pre-pandemic times and we are now witnessing the most dramatic slump in passenger car registrations in Europe in the past two decades . The semiconductor crisis is the main reason behind the ultimate disruption of the automotive market ; its fallout includes extended waiting time for new cars and limited range . It also affects EVs as customers need to wait up to a year to have the vehicle delivered ,” he told the SMMT .
Tourists on Main Market Square in Krakow , Poland ( image : Jacek Dylag , Unsplash .)
Bridge in Warsaw . Image : Shutterstock . com .
“ Although Poland is in the vanguard of countries moving away from the diesel drive , it has a lot of catching up to do in terms of zeroemission vehicles as country-specific conditions must be taken into consideration . The situation is completely different from countries which have very well-developed EV charging networks . Problems are also anticipated with the availability of electric energy , and they are not only related to its shortage but also the location ….. so far , energy transmission seems to pose more challenges in Poland than its generation ,” he continued .
He also highlighted challenges with the distribution of charging stations , with charging infrastructure “ in its infancy ” and state aid “ essential to add momentum to its development .”
“ Transition to electric road transport seems to be even more challenging . The biggest issue in the long-term perspective is the availability of electric power , which requires the development of new power stations and transmission networks , and consequently the availability of charging stations ,” he underlined .
“ The charging of trucks is even more challenging than charging passenger vehicles as it is more time-consuming and requires more power . Poland is currently home to barely 16 electric heavy-duty vehicles , but their number is expected to increase in the not-so-distant future . Ultimately , we will need to renew the entire HDV fleet and develop a dedicated network of charging stations , virtually from scratch ,” he said .
From January to August 2022 , 162.7 thousand passenger cars left production lines in Poland ( -10.4% y / y than the corresponding period in 2021 and -45% compared to pre-pandemic 2019 ). During the first eight months of 2022 , 124,949 trucks ( light , medium and heavy trucks and tractors ) left Polish automotive factories . This result was + 13.3 % y / y higher than in the same period in 2021 and 18,023 units higher than that recorded in 2020 . In August 2022 , production of public transport vehicles ( buses ) totalled 250 units , 14 units more than in the same month in 2021 (+ 5.9 % y / y ).
High inflation and the increasing cost of transport , raw materials and consumables have also affected the market . Uncertainty regarding the price and availability of energy and raw materials ( which are key for planning and maintaining continuity in production ) are important concerns .
“ Without a doubt , we have come to live in exciting times to witness watershed developments in the automotive sector . The industry which was recently forced to navigate the fallout of the crisis trigged by the pandemic , disrupted semiconductor supplies and the war in Ukraine has also been challenged to meet extremely ambitious reduction targets and , in not-so-distant future , transition to new drives . Achievement of its targets depends not only on automotive manufacturers , but also on many other players ,” concluded Jakub Faryś . n