Gdańsk port ( image : Shutterstock . com .)
POLAND IN VIEW
We highlight macro-economic forecasts for Poland and trends in its automotive sector for manufacturers .
Image : Shutterstock . com .
“ Despite significant headwinds , the Polish economy continued on a strong growth path in 2022 .”
Poland ’ s well-diversified economy has proved to be one of the most resilient economies in the EU . A sound macroeconomic framework ; effective absorption of EU investment funds ; strong financial sector ; better access to longterm credit and access to European labour markets have supported long-term inclusive growth and poverty reduction .
It is also geographically important , located at the heart of Europe and connecting Asia to Western Europe with excellent transport infrastructure . Four main European trade corridors intersect in Poland . Three key rail corridors pass through Poland ’ s territory and it is a key European logistical hub ; the Deepwater Container Terminal Gdańsk ( DCT Gdańsk ) and the Central Port in Gdańsk are two examples .
Poland ’ s population is also very well educated ; as many as 92 per cent of its citizens , aged 25-64 , have at least a secondary education . There are almost 1.3 million students studying at Polish universities , with large numbers of students majoring in STEM faculties ( science , technology , engineering and mathematics ).
According to the World Bank , strong domestic labour markets and increases in median and bottom 40 real incomes have supported private consumption in Poland . Over the medium term , a key challenge is tightening labour supply , made more acute by the aging population . The large influx of displaced people from Ukraine could help to address this challenge . Achieving decarbonisation commitments is another challenge .
Macro-economic forecast
“ Despite significant headwinds , the Polish economy continued on a strong growth path in 2022 supported by an expansionary fiscal stance , a favourable situation in the labour market and the large inflow of displaced people from Ukraine . Data on the real economy suggests that economic growth in the fourth quarter weakened visibly , partly due to elevated inflation and tighter financing conditions . Nevertheless , a strong revision of historical data led to a significantly higher starting GDP level for 2022 , lifting the real GDP growth projection in 2022 to 4.9 % i . e . 0.9 pps higher than in the Autumn Forecast ,” commented the European Commission in February this year .
“ Elevated inflation and low consumer and business confidence are expected to keep weighing on economic growth in the coming quarters . Declining real incomes , amid an already low savings rate , will probably put downward pressure on private consumption , which is projected to decrease slightly in 2023 . Private investment , especially in construction , is expected to continue being affected by higher interest rates and elevated uncertainty ,” it continued .
However , it added , a significant inflow of foreign direct investment and an expected rise in public spending ( particularly on defence ) are set