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Is the present growth in registrations sustainable?
Have I woken from a fever dream? Have I have fallen down a Rabbit Hole into a parallel universe where buying a motorcycle is a civic duty? The last time I experienced anything like this was after the start of the Covid Pandemic. Back then it was as if buying a motorcycle was part of the course of medical treatment that had been prescribed to keep everyone healthy. Or if not a complete bike, then maybe a seat, or exhaust, or set of handlebars and controls; or maybe a new helmet? Boots? Gloves? Something, anything to help keep the local dealership open and stave off the fear of falling victim of the new plague. Now though? In this ' multi-war ' era rising costs, uncertainty, ignorance, bigotry, AIcreep and widespread cultural atrophy, has buying a motorcycle again been prescribed as good for our souls? Has riding again assumed its rightful position as Europe ' s official universal antidote to awfulness? That ' s how it felt after spending a morning writing up this month ' s new motorcycle registration statistics( see pages 6 & 7). Indeed, so impressed was I by the apparently unstoppable juggernaut of 2026 market trends that if you diligently read all the ' News Briefs ' scattered through the pages of this edition you ' ll be witness to a motivation to report that borders on obsession. However, caution is still advised. The statistics themselves still have to be regarded with a degree of scepticism. There is no playbook to tell us when we formally emerge from under the statistical shadow of the Euro 5 + ' Preg Reg ' trauma. Some 18 months or more after the event, for H2 2026 to be showing unusually strong growth characteristics does suggest that there may still be some underlying effects at play in some markets. Time for some facts. In Italy motorcycle registrations are running at + 4.7 % for the first nine months of the year( 120,364 fun rockets) with total new PTWs( Powered Two-Wheelers) at + 10.88 %- that is 313,032 machines( of one kind or another) in just nine months. If there is anyone left in Italy without one, give me a call and I ' m sure I ' ll be able to hook you up. Of course it wasn ' t always thus. As recently as the first half of 2025 it felt like the Italian market had fallen off a cliff. In Germany, where the market really had fallen over the edge of an apparently bottomless abyss( in statistical terms at any rate), a re-found enthusiasm for life on two wheels saw growth in the first eight months of the year up by a staggering + 17.51 %( 91,946) new motorcycles and + 24.75 % total PTWs( 158,000 of your earth units). Someone must have disabled Germany ' s ' Caution ' button! In the ever dependable, motorcycle obsessed Spanish market, a 21.35 % YTD growth in the new motorcycle registrations( 219,594 units YTD) hardly seems remarkable anymore. But it is. While Spain managed to pass through the ring of fire that was the 2024 / 2025 Euro 5 + ' Pre-Reg ' trauma pretty much unscathed, it hasn ' t always necessarily been that way there. After a decade or so of extraordinary growth in ' the noughties ' the Spanish motorcycle industry was hit hard, very hard by the Global financial crisis and recovery didn ' t come quickly or easily for Spanish dealers. But when it did, the market there grew quickly. The market in Spain seems unstoppable now. Well, to the envious eyes of this Brit it does. In recent years we here on our little island, cast adrift a sea of decline on the sea of the edge of the
debt is not a virtue
European mainland, banned from the top table and humiliated by our own hubris, we have felt like the proverbial ' red headed stepchild ' when it came to the performance of the British motorcycle market. Even in the UK though, new motorcycle registrations are up, and up strongly at + 14.77 % YTD with 83,775 new units registered through September. Okay, okay, compared to some markets that is no great shakes, but after years of decline, wandering around in the darkness of the economic wilderness, it is at least a torch light beam of optimism. With the ' MotoGP fest ' that will be the 83rd Esposizione Internazionale Ciclo Motociclo e Accessori( EICMA) almost upon us, what does this year ' s show hold for us? The strategic thinking behind ANCMA ' s pivot to embracing Liberty Media ' s massive Dorna / MotoGP expansion budgets should, in theory, have a trickle-down effect to the P & A / G & A sectors- even though an increasing majority of show traffic is not old enough to hold a motorcycle license yet. There is a lot of ' smoke and mirrors ', misleading ' facts ' and downright lies in the statistics that EICMA releases at the end of each show. The exaggerated attendance is one thing, but it is the annual claim of some 20 percent of exhibitors being new each year that is nonsense. MotoGP already absorbs disproportionate percentages of the industry ' s sales and marketing budgets. But as the ambitions of EICMA and the ownership of Dorna grow ever more inflated, will there be any investment capital, R & D and marketing budgets left for the parts, accessory and apparel exhibitor community? Or are we simply handing over our business bank account PIN numbers to Liberty Media? Does the concept of " trickle down " even exist at all? Most Economists think that it is a bogus concept. Besides, where racing investments are concerned, the days of win on Sundays and sell on Mondays are long since over. Long may the present apparent trend in new motorcycle registrations continue, and long may we all live in that parallel universe, regardless that it is a deluded ' happy place ' bubble in which perception triumphs over reality. Real world truths are inconvenient truths. Debt is the black where economic progress metrics are concerned. Bubbles have a habit of popping though. All it takes is an uptick in the bond yield curve, a hike in interest rates, an inflation increase or another war for it to all end badly. This still a fragile market that could, almost overnight, see us be back where we were 20 years ago. Maybe we can all go and live in abandoned data centres when the debt bubble bursts. Personally, I ' d take sustainable, rational, realistic mid-single digit growth all day long.
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world. com