mountain where good money goes to die
• COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • A big fat hurrah with sprinkles and an umbrella
Last month I wrote that I had concerns about what we would encounter at EICMA this year , when the show got underway (" Reading the Room "). What kind of industry ' vibe ' there would be ? Overall , we found the attitude to be almost universally positive . We must have had over 70 meeting appointments at EICMA , and many more informal conversations with colleagues in addition to that . The ' vibe ' we were getting about market conditions was very relaxed . I was pleasantly surprised . By far the overwhelming impression I brought home with me was that talk about the imminent demise of the motorcycle industry in Europe is greatly overstated . One of the last things I wrote before the last ( November / December ) edition of International Dealer News went to press , ten days before the doors of EICMA were opened , were the , then , latest new motorcycle registration statistics from some of Europe ' s major markets . On that basis the impression I was hoping for was that while , yes , there were plenty of negatives flying about - declining consumer confidence , inflation and interest rates still higher that we had all gotten used to , multiple wars , multiple concerns about threats to our way of life and to our specific endeavour here in the motorcycle industry - there were also reasons to be cheerful . I thought we were in a market that was actually doing better than most people appeared to realise . That was indeed what a lot of people were saying . Inevitably one of the big talking points was the likely outcome of the U . S . election . Then , once the results were known , what would the impact of Trump 2.0 be on a largely import / export led consumer discretionary market with a large reliance on raw materials as well as finished goods . The paradox of the US electorate rejecting the prior administration because of the economy , when the United States economy is really doing quite well , finds parallels here in Europe . For us here in Europe the widespread anxiety about where our economies are headed also comes at a time when the motorcycle industry ( specifically ) is actually doing quite well in most markets and segments . The KTM malaise is a big negative - they make great bikes but , in corporate terms it simply proves that MV Agusta really is the mountain where good money goes to die . While most of the exhibitors I met are realistic , understanding that it wouldn ' t take much to disrupt market equilibrium , they were relaxed about prospects for the next six months ( at least ). If you read my analysis of the show ( pages 1 and 23 ) it might sound like it was a bad show . It wasn ' t . Most had a very good show , us included . Spending on new product R & D and marketing have always been two of the primary and most reliable ' bellwethers ' when it comes to understanding how well an individual business might do when market conditions are difficult - or how well an entire sector or market is doing . Time after time it has been proven that businesses that maintain their R & D and marketing investments are those that do best through and after a downturn .
mountain where good money goes to die
So here it is . My official take on EICMA and its prognosis for our industry ? We did very well in business terms ( thank you everyone ) and as far as I can tell so did most others . In our case reports about print magazine advertising revenues being in decline are also greatly exaggerated . Just as importantly , we saw more interesting new products being launched than at any time in recent years - certainly since before Covid . So , hurrah for the innovators ! Some of the stories are in this edition and we will probably be continuing to carry more industry good news like this until into the summer of 2025 . Meanwhile , the last thing I did before sitting down to write this comment piece was to spend several hours working my way through the latest crop of industry registration statistics - this time through to October 2024 ( mostly ) and , again , the news remains mostly good . Italy was up by + 6.13 % at around 141,000 new registrations to end of October having been up by around + 7.50 % through to the end of September . Hurrah . Spain is up by nearly the same as it was for the first nine months , at + 7.15 % up for the first ten . More hurrah . The UK , which feels to me like it has been living in a permacrisis ever since the Brexit vote , is now starting show signs of serious market atrophy at -3.4 % YTD . Indeed , new motorcycle registrations have been well below the 2016 level ever since the vote . Like elsewhere , the trend is towards lower displacements and price-points in the UK at this time , which means the market is overstocked with big inch bikes and having to make a living from lower profits . No hurrah in the UK . It is Germany that interests me though . To hear people and the media talk about the German consumer , manufacturing sector and government it is as if an official appointment for the End of Days has been agreed for December 31st . The last Silvester ! Despite all that , registrations for the first nine months in Germany were up at + 1.86 % mark for the first nine months of 2024 , and are + 3.14 % for the first ten months . At ( a possibly ' soft ') 123,242 new units YTD that represents the second best ever such period for the German market . Hurrah and a big fat sausage for that one ! Whilst the ACEM data for the ' Big Five ' markets through to end of September is an average for some 80 % of the European market ( Italy , France , Spain , Germany and the UK ) it is the nearest thing we have to an Official Statement of Affairs . The numbers confirm ' postponement of impending doom ' with 885,500 units during the first nine months of 2024 , an increase of some + 1.3 %. That gets a big fat hurrah with sprinkles and an umbrella !
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com