nuance and context
• COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • Reading the Room
One of the missions we give ourselves when we visit EICMA for three days every November , is to try to gauge what financial analysts refer to as ' Market Sentiment '. This can take many forms - P & A and G & A product offer trends , accessory and motorcycle pricing trends , vendor and dealer confidence ( the two are closely linked , but they are not the same ), OEM motorcycle trends , inventory , technology , materials and , of course , spending through the channels . Whether or not the market is ' buying ' is , ultimately , inextricably linked to two primary factors . Whether riders are inclined to be in the market for a new motorcycle ( a new or pre-owned unit ) and if they are also , or instead of a new ride , minded to stock up on new accessories - new gear or apparel and helmet , and maybe some new hard parts - whether components ( performance or otherwise ) or accessories to freshen up the look of a new machine , and these days that often includes creature comforts such as comms systems , phone holders , or whatever . That may all be stating the ' blindingly obvious ', but some 45 years of visiting motorcycle industry shows , primarily as a ' magazine guy ' rather than a rider , dealer or importer , has shown me two things . First , that whatever the superficial impression one gets of trends and present sentiment , look harder , drill deeper , and don ' t come to immediate conclusions . A considered assessment as the postshow weeks plays out often adds valuable nuance and context to what one saw and experienced . Secondly , don ' t always trust the data . However , he or she who thinks they know it all , either haven ' t been asking the right questions or have been putting too much faith in data . At all times remember this - motorcycling is a fundamentally irrational and emotional undertaking . Data is great , we all need it , increasingly so as we slide ever deeper into an Asimovesque dystopia in which all evolution is code . As I get older , I become increasingly concerned that the closest we will ever get to any quasi-Buddhist concept of reincarnation is one in which we all come back as QR Codes ! As the data in this edition of IDN shows , we are not yet in a position to be able to draw dependable conclusions about the market ' s direction of travel based solely on the numbers . - which why ' Reading the Room ' at EICMA and playing close attention to what happens in the following three months is so important this of all years . The national trade association motorcycle registrations data that we have been able to publish in this edition draws a mixed picture . For the first nine months of the year to September , Italy ( at + 7.17 %/ 131,950 units ) and Spain ( at + 7.18 %/ 163,599 units ) are both defying the odds if the prevailing , pre-EICMA market sentiment is anything to go by . In both cases , those market performances are , in fact , the best first nine months seen in those countries in more than 15 years , and the detail in the data yields no discernible evidence of a positive or negative direction of travel in either direction , unless you happen to be an electric PTW of some kind . Parked in the dark , gathering dust in some cold damp warehouse , unloved and still awaiting customs clearance . I hope I don ' t come back as one of those ! In Germany , the news suggests the emergence of a new class of Quantum Data - simultaneously good and bad . The headline news is that YTD through September , new motorcycle registrations were ' only ' + 1.86 % and six out of the nine months so
nuance and context
far show registrations ' essentially flat '. At + 6.22 %, + 5.47 % and + 4.92 %, the other three months of 2024 would have been considered poor months in 2023 - a year in which all 12 months were in double figures , with the weakest being + 13.74 % and the best two months being + 31.26 % and + 24.86 %. So , by any measure , 2024 has seen the prior strong ( and I mean really strong ) German market growth evaporate - putting the wider economic data that we are all seeing and hearing about for the German economy to convincing proof . However , despite all that , Schrodinger ' s data for Germany also shows that at 114,736 units YTD , registrations in Germany look likely to close out 2024 as the second strongest market performance in at least 15 years . Unlike the emotional attachment we all have to riding , all data is explainable . And therein lines its mono-dimensional weakness , in what Schrodinger described as a multiverse . In this case , you are not getting the full story if you only read stats . ' Reading the Room ', aka nuance and context , tells you that while most dealers in Germany and the distributors they buy from all agree that the market there is down , they will all come up with different versions and definitions of ' down ', and with different versions of what sectors of the market are weakest . The primary problem will be that the strong growth in cash and capital resources generated since 2020 ( 2021 through 2023 ) has slowed down . But context tells us that it is the direction of travel that we need to see more evidence for . What happens in Germany in the first quarter of 2025 will be all important . Everyone is becoming increasingly familiar with the financial news from the OEMs , but even that is not a uniform picture . Yes , KTM has stubbed its toe badly , Piaggio ' s multi-decade comeback crusade has stalled , BMW and Ducati are on the negative side of flat , but not yet headed for the ' hurt locker ' that KTM finds itself in . While much smaller , Triumph appears to be unable to do anything wrong at this time . It remains to be seen whether going to war on all fronts and finally trying to get ' techy ' on models whose essential charm and appeal has been their relative simplicity dents their performance in the next 24 months . Meanwhile , based on the available data for the first half of 2024 , the Japanese manufacturers are basically doing okay - modestly , consistently and sustainably up , I ' d say . No records being set , but no factories closing either . As to the American manufacturers though , don ' t ask . Let ' s not even go there ! That data is dystopian . Harley-Davidson and Polaris ( Indian ) are in serious trouble , for all sorts of reasons . Just one final thought though , and it concerns the Japanese brands . Exports of machines to Europe from their home factories ( over 250 cc ) were down by -49.92 % in July and -36.78 % in August ; YTD they are down by -15.55 %, and the trend is headed decidedly ' south '. Hmmm .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com