International Core Journal of Engineering 2020-26 | Page 35

2019 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Manufacturing (AIAM) Analysis and Evaluation of Settlement Risk in Power Market based on Triangular Fuzzy Number Dianning Wu Yang Liu Kunming Power Exchange Center Company Limited Kunming 650011, China [email protected] School of Electrical Engineering Wuhan University Wuhan 430072, China [email protected] Peiheng Duan, Qinggui Chen Xue Cui, Liming Ying, Kaisheng Lin Kunming Power Exchange Center Company Limited Kunming 650011, China School of Electrical Engineering Wuhan University Wuhan 430072, China [email protected] Abstract—With the continuous development of China's power market construction, China's power market has gradually entered the pattern of combining long-term power trading with spot market. Aiming at the risk of settlement in power market, a risk assessment is proposed based on triangular fuzzy numbers. The risk assessment method consists identification and rank. The power market settlement risks by risk identification include data risk, credit risk, tax risk and policy risk, and the risk ranking is carried out by using triangular fuzzy numbers to determine the influence degree of the four risks on the settlement of power market. Finally, an example is given to verify that the risk ranking method proposed in this paper. The results show that the method proposed in paper can evaluate effectively the impact degree of the risk during settlement. And, the analysis results can provide the basis for risk effective control. the market risk and its avoidance and settlement mechanism applicable to China's regional power market are proposed in [2]. Reference [3] analyzed the risk of power retailers in the power market and the corresponding risk control methods from the perspective of power companies. From the perspective of operation and management, [4] discussed the risk management of power grid operation in the power market environment and the corresponding risks, [5] proposed the framework risk management of the power market by combining with financial risk management technology. Overall, the above researches can be divided into two categories according to different research contents. One is the various risks proposed for the power market and the corresponding risk control method, the other is possible risks and corresponding risk aversion methods during the power transaction from the perspective of the power market players. However, the risks that exist in the process of settlement in the power market have never been mentioned. Keywords—power market, settlement risk, triangular fuzzy number, risk ranking I. I NTRODUCTION With the development of China's power market construction, mid-long term trading rules have been successively established in various provinces and cities. China's power market has entered a construction period combining mid- long power trading with power spot market transactions. From the perspective of operation and management of the power market, the settlement system is a core component and a key link, and is also an important link to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power market. However, in the process of power market settlement, there are often many risks, which may lead to losses in the settlement of the power market. Therefore, it is urgent to study the risk of settlement in the power market. II. P OWER MARKET SETTLEMENT RISK IDENTIFICATION According to the settlement entity and settlement process, the power market settlement risk can be divided into four categories: data risk, credit risk, tax risk and policy risk. At present, the power market settlement process in China is shown in Figure 1. State Grid Corporation Power Generation At present, the research on the risks related to the power market mainly stays on the market players. Aiming at the current situation of power market reform in China, [1] summarized the methods of risk measurement and risk control in the power market environment, and reviewed the main domestic research results and progress. According to the actual situation of the provinces and cities in the region, 978-1-7281-4691-1/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE DOI 10.1109/AIAM48774.2019.00009 Power Exchange Center Company Customer Power Sale Corporation Information flow Cash flow Invoice flow Fig. 1. Flow chart of power market settlement Figure 1 shows that Power Exchange is the information 13