Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 64

Indian Politics & Policy
governments, a large number would
have inevitably been BJP or BJP-allied
governments, particularly in northern
and western India. That is, the Modi
government’s welfare outreach was
considerable and gained it credit from
significant slices of the electorate. What
is also remarkable is that in each of the
nine welfare programs, the proportion
of beneficiaries are similar in each of
the four classes with small differences;
that is, they seem to be universal, not
income-targeted programs, although
some like MNREGA are aimed at the
poor.
Leadership, Nationalism,
Minorities and the Ecology
of Attitudes That Might
Affect Party Preference
Across Class Cleavages
Finally, given that non-economic
issues were the most important
issues for 39 percent of the respondents,
how did these issues impact
the public and who would have gained
electorally? What were general orientations
on questions such as leadership,
nationalism, and minorities that have
implications for party preferences? The
key issue—given the positions taken
and propagated explicitly or implicitly
by the BJP at various levels—is whether
there was a Hindu consolidation across
caste and class cleavages based on attitudes
to Muslims or minorities in general.
A number of questions throw light
on these. Our finding is that accommodative
attitudes toward minorities enjoy
a large majority, although this needs
careful interpretation. We examine
what the data says on these matters.
Modi’s leadership and the perceived
lack of a credible alternative
leadership appear to have played a decisive
role. As many as 47 percent (Rich
at 53 percent, Poor at 44 percent, with
others in between) preferred Modi as
the next Prime Minister (the post-election
survey was done before the results
were announced), with only 23 percent
preferring Rahul Gandhi. And as many
as one-third of the voters who voted
for the BJP would have voted for some
other party were Modi not the prime
ministerial candidate (in 2014, a quarter
of NDA voters would have voted for
some other party were Modi not the
PM candidate). It would appear that
Modi’s leadership was crucial in what
appeared to have become a semi-presidential
election, even more crucial than
in 2014.
This interpretation is buttressed
by responses to another question in
which 39 percent fully agreed with the
proposition that the country “should be
governed by a strong leader who does
not have to bother about winning elections,”
with Rich at 49 percent, Poor 32
percent, and only 7 percent fully disagreeing
with this position.
On nationalism, let us look at the
much-talked about Balakot airstrike on
Pakistan in response to the terrorist attack
in Pulwama, and its aftermath, often
mentioned as a nationalist rallying
point around the ruling party and Modi
as a leader. As many as 76 percent had
heard of it, including 87 percent of the
Rich and 67 percent of the Poor, a 20
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