MINING mining companies, particularly those without access to low-cost extraction sites or highly efficient operations.“ Once the commodities boom is over, survival will become increasingly difficult for less competitive players,” he warns.
STRUCTURAL DRIVERS BEHIND CONSOLIDATION
Professor Glen Nwaila, Associate Professor of Geometallurgy and Machine Learning at the Wits School of Geosciences, and Director of the Wits Mining Institute and the African Research Centre for Ore Systems Science( CORES), says the potential Rio Tinto – Glencore deal reflects a broader structural shift in global mining, rather than an opportunistic transaction.
“ The global mining sector is entering a stronger consolidation phase,” he says.“ The energy transition, electrification and the rapid buildout of digital infrastructure are intensifying demand for large volumes of critical minerals, particularly copper, while new supply remains slow, capital intensive and difficult to bring online.”
Scale, adds Nwaila, is increasingly becoming a form of risk management. Large, diversified mining companies are better positioned to absorb political, regulatory and logistics shocks; finance projects through commodity cycles, and concentrate specialised skills in areas such as permitting, geology, metallurgy, tailings management and community engagement.
“ In today’ s mining economy, balance sheet strength is a technical advantage, not just a financial one,” he says, adding that consolidation typically accelerates when ore grades decline, lead times lengthen and expectations around environmental and social performance tighten.
LIMITED SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON SUPPLY, STRATEGIC SHIFT LONG-TERM
Despite the scale of a potential merger, Bohlmann believes the short- to medium-term impact on global production of key commodities such as copper and iron ore would likely be limited.“ The merger is unlikely to materially change overall production relative to the current trajectory,” he said.“ Many of the implications are more about where capital returns are directed, rather than how much is ultimately produced.”
However, the strategic implications could be significant. Combined, Rio Tinto and Glencore would form the world’ s largest copper producer – a metal that has gained renewed attention due to its critical role in electrification, renewable energy and artificial intelligence-related infrastructure.
“ With interest in critical minerals at an alltime high, and growing talk of an extended commodities supercycle, Rio Tinto is clearly looking to consolidate control over future-facing commodities,” Bohlmann explains.“ This aligns closely with the global energy transition and the value chains supporting technologies such as AI.”
One area to watch closely, he says, is how the merged entity might handle Glencore’ s coal assets, including whether parts of the business could be spun off to align with investor and regulatory expectations.
JOBS, INVESTMENT AND REGULATORY HURDLES
Historically, mergers in the mining sector tend to prioritise efficiencies rather than job creation, unless accompanied by significant expansion.“ With mergers, it is very rarely good for jobs unless there is rapid investment in new or existing sites,” says Bohlmann.“ Much will depend on regulatory approvals, country-specific negotiations and longer-term investment commitments.”
In the medium term, however, an extended commodities boom could support job creation and drive increased investment across the sector.“ It is likely to be positive for the broader investment environment, even if short-term labour outcomes remain unclear,” he said.
As discussions evolve, market participants and policymakers alike will be watching closely to see whether the potential deal reshapes the competitive landscape of global mining, or ultimately proves too complex and costly to complete. IB
DISCLAIMER: This article reflects information available at the time of print. Developments in the Rio Tinto – Glencore discussions may have occurred since going to press. We’ ll keep you posted online.
FEBRUARY 2026 / INBOUND SA 13