MINING
BY TARRYN-LEIGH SOLOMONS
A POTENTIAL RIO TINTO – GLENCORE DEAL COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL MINING, INTENSIFYING CONSOLIDATION, SQUEEZING SMALLER PLAYERS AND STRENGTHENING CONTROL OVER COPPER AND CRITICAL MINERALS TIED TO THE ENERGY TRANSITION.
Speculation around a potential takeover of Glencore by mining giant Rio Tinto is reigniting debate about consolidation, competition and longterm strategy in the global mining sector. In early January 2026, both Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed that they were in preliminary discussions about a possible merger, with reporting indicating a combined valuation of roughly $ 200 billion.
According to Heinrich Bohlmann, Associate Professor of Economics in the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the University of Pretoria, such a deal would significantly increase concentration in an industry already dominated by a small group of multinational players.
“ It would certainly mean a more concentrated and less competitive global mining sector,” Bohlmann says, noting that shareholder reactions have been telling. Rio Tinto’ s share price has weakened on the back of the speculation, while Glencore’ s has risen – a sign, he argues, that the market believes Rio would need to pay a substantial premium to push the deal through.
“ This suggests the acquisition may not necessarily be in the best interests of Rio shareholders at face value,” Bohlmann said.“ Management would therefore need to be highly optimistic about future commodity prices or demand to justify such a move.”
If completed, the transaction could place additional pressure on smaller and emerging
12 INBOUND SA / FEBRUARY 2026