Part 1: Data review
Chart 10: Monthly YoY casino revenue increase
since June 2018
Chart 11: New Jersey poker revenues January 2017
– January 2019
2.4
60
2.3
55
2.2
2.1
45 2.0
40 1.9
35
50
1.8
1.7
30
1.6
25 1.5
20 1.4
1.3
15
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Casino YoY increase
Source: NJDGE
This rate of acceleration might
even continue when we consider
that DraftKings is yet to launch its
own full product set for its mobile
casino app and is currently only
running blackjack.
The casino data also points to
another important feature of the US
scene – the degree to which casino
properties might be willing to run
their sports betting operations as a
loss leader for their online gaming
operations.
The competitive picture
As with sports betting, the data from
the Division of Gaming Enforcement
unfortunately doesn’t afford us a
breakdown by skin but rather gives
us a master operator breakdown
(see Table 3).
As can be seen, the brands
operating under the Golden Nugget
master licence are by some distance
12
1.2
n-
Fe
Jul-18
Source: NJDGE
the market leaders and within that
Golden Nugget’s own-brand casino is
believed to be market leader overall,
with just under a 20% market share.
Poker woes
The fly in the ointment in New
Jersey, as it is elsewhere in
the regulated world, is the
poor performance of poker.
Notwithstanding any potential
further damage to poker’s prospects
caused by the reinterpretation of the
Wire Act and the effect that might
have on the whole idea of liquidity
sharing between states, it can be
seen that poker revenues continue
to disappoint in New Jersey.
Those with long enough
memories will remember that
the deal struck between the then
owners of PartyPoker and MGM
Borgata for poker provision in the
regulated New Jersey market was
a big deal. Even bigger was the
decision to allow PokerStars and its
new owners a return to the US post
Black Friday, with a deal to provide
poker via Resorts.
Both deals have certainly been
rewarded with dominant market
shares in poker, and in this limited
sense they can be considered a
success. But the revenue picture for
poker is far less compelling as far as
each will be concerned.
The only good news is the apparent
uptick achieved in December and
January, a move which is likely partly
seasonal but also might be evidence
of a small amount of cross-sell from
sports betting.
Otherwise, the picture is gloomy,
with the vertical failing to breach
the $2m-a-month revenue mark
since April 2017. Whether the recent
uptick can push the market much
further than that is debatable.
New Jersey: data and lessons from the first five years of the US’ leading digital market