H2GC Reports US sports betting: the road to 2030 | Page 7

The market
The end game: legal market 2018-30
Forecasts have been based on 30 states
regulating by 2030. A ‘gold rush’ is expected,
similar to phenomena seen with other forms
of gambling, such as race betting, casinos and
lotteries.
Gross win forecast 25.9% CAGR
Best measure (aka GGR) as it eradicates the
difference in hold between markets/channels.
Growing at 25.9% CAGR: $500-550m (2018) —
$5.74bn (2024) — $8.01bn (2030).
Significant handle numbers
H2’s first ever bottom up analysis of US handle.
Totals: $5-5.5bn+ (2018) – $58bn (2024) – $81bn
(2030).
But slow to mobile
Mobile will be central to success but is expected
in only around 12 states. Live in-play betting is
expected to be the game-changer in the medium
to longer-term.
Across Europe, online and mobile will account
for 54% of sports betting in 2018, and by
comparison 62% by 2023.
US mobile penetration: $130m+ (2018) —
$1.90bn (2024) — $4.01bn (2030).
Chart 1: Sports betting gross win forecasts by channel ($bn)
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2030e
Landbased
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0
Mobile
Chart 2: Sports betting handle ($bn)
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80
70
60
50
40
30
20
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0
US sports betting: the road to 2030 November 2018
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