parlay wagers , which are higher margin , and therefore micro betting is likely to have a lower hold margin than other products . At an assumed 7.1 % hold margin , this equates to gross win of between $ 1.5bn and $ 3.7bn in 2025 – or a mid-point estimate of $ 2.5bn of gross win .
It is worth noting that due to the uniqueness of each sport there is room for even more upside . In addition to the stop-start cadence of US sports , there are far more variations of markets and selections for micro timeframes as compared to tennis . Each play can be a rush or pass , a first down , a sack , a touchdown , etc .
It should also be noted that in-play / micro betting is not incompatible with the current operator focus on parlay betting . The most popular micro market for NFL is a four-selection drive result market . The most popular plate appearance market for baseball is an eight-selection market including home run , strikeout , etc .
Furthermore , when compared to global sports , US sports present unprecedented opportunities for micro timeframe player props as fans of these leagues are far more accustomed to tracking and predicting player performance . Predicting which player will record the next touchdown or three-pointer , or whether a player will make or miss their next shot attempt could prove popular . By contrast , player prop markets don ’ t have the same potential in Europe , as soccer has fewer individual player prop betting opportunities .
While we are starting to see some early results in the US – which we examine below – micro betting on US sports presents both new challenges and new opportunities with the user-experience .
MICRO BETTING – CURRENT PERFORMANCE
BASEBALL Data shared with H2 shows that a leading supplier of micro betting product in the US saw a fourfold increase in the number of micro bets on the 2022 MLB season compared to the prior year , and a 2.5x increase in handle . Throughout the 2022 season , handle grew significantly month-bymonth with September doing three times that compared to April . MLB saw the most micro betting volume of any major US sport with individual pitch outcome markets accounting for over 40 % of micro betting volume ( despite offering far more markets on plate appearances and half innings ).
Furthermore , over the season as a whole , it returned a hold margin of 8 %, suggesting the potential market GGR could be even higher than H2 has estimated in this paper .
FOOTBALL A leading micro betting supplier estimates that they currently account for c . 20 % of in-play handle for their sportsbook clients on the football season , with strong growth year-onyear , and strong week-on-week within the season . They also shared that markets for drives accounted for over 80 % of their micro betting volume with next play markets accounting for the rest . This is of particular interest as it contrasts with MLB , where the most micro timeframes ( pitches ) seem to be driving more volume .
Hold margin improved from 5.4 % in 2021 to c . 9 % in 2022 , again suggesting further upside potential to H2 ’ s market GGR estimate of $ 2.5bn .
BASKETBALL A leading in-play supplier that has invested heavily into basketball micro markets shared that while micro betting is not currently as popular in basketball as other sports , this season handle per match has grown by 3.5x compared to post all-star break of last season ( the product was in beta pre all-star break ). It estimated NBA micro markets account for roughly 7 % of NBA live-betting handle for their clients with college basketball being closer to 10 %.
Its margins for micro timeframe markets have been 6.6 % and 8.3 % for NBA and College Basketball respectively .
25