US SPORTS BETTING IN 2023
to estimate the resultant gross win ( see Fig 22 ).
This suggests that in 2025 , in-play could generate c .$ 117bn of handle and c .$ 9bn of gross win in the US .
The strong potential of in-play is now starting to come through in the most recent US data , with Genius Sports reporting significant growth from in-play in its latest results . In the first three weeks of the NFL season , the company has seen in-play handle increase by 70 % YoY , leading to in-play GGR up 200 % YoY – which has been the main driver in overall US revenue growth of 70 % YoY .
MICRO BETTING – MARKET POTENTIAL
The potential of micro betting is more difficult to estimate , not least because the definition of micro betting is still up for debate . For example , in tennis would micro betting be classified as wagering on the next point , or would it include wagering on the next game , or even the next set – i . e . anything less than the end result ? In basketball would it be the next basket , the next quarter , or the next half ?
Depending on your view of the above , the micro betting market size potential varies significantly . As an example :
• c . 5 % of in-play tennis wagering is on point betting , whereas 35 % is on game betting and a further 20 % is on set betting – so at one level micro betting could be said to account for
Fig 22 : US sports betting in-play potential ($ bn )
2025e |
In-play |
Pre-match |
Total |
US handle ($ bn ) |
117 |
39 |
156 |
% In-play / Pre-match |
75 % |
25 % |
|
Hold margin |
7.7 % |
9.8 % |
8.2 % |
GGR ($ bn ) |
9.0 |
3.8 |
12.8 |
% In-play / Pre-match |
70 % |
30 % |
|
Source : H2 Gambling Capital , January 2023 |
|
|
|
Source : H2 Gambling Capital , January 2023 |
Fig 23 : US sports betting micro betting potential ($ bn )
2025e ($ bn ) |
Low |
Mid |
High |
In-play handle ($ bn ) |
117 |
117 |
117 |
Micro betting % |
18 % |
30 % |
45 % |
Micro betting handle ($ bn ) |
21 |
35 |
52 |
Hold margin |
7.1 % |
7.1 % |
7.1 % |
GGR ($ bn ) |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.7 |
|
Source : H2
: H2 Gambling
Gambling
Capital , Capital January 2023
, January 2023
|
|
|
|
c . 5 % of in-play tennis betting , or it of in-play betting in 2021 , reaching could be said to account for c . 60 % of as high as 30 % in college football . in-play tennis betting
We use the 18 % figure as the low
• In basketball , c . 35 % of wagers are point of our analysis for the market not related to the full-time result , but potential , and the 30 % achieved in only c . 2 % are on player prop bets – college football as the mid-point . however we do note that there is very The high point of 45 % is based on a little in the way of true micro betting 50 % increase in that currently achieved markets in European basketball ( i . e . in college football , given the relative next basket etc .) immaturity of the product , and is a Given that tennis is the only European five percentage point premium to product that currently has real micro the current point and game betting betting markets , we use this as a proxy in European tennis . This broad range for the potential in US sports . implies handle of $ 21bn to $ 52bn in
Data reported by a leading provider 2025 ( see Fig 23 ). of micro betting markets shows that We then reduce the assumed hold micro betting accounted for 14 % -18% margin , as in-play betting can include
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