US SPORTS BETTING IN 2023
% of GDP
Fig 16 : US online sports betting gross win : existing states vs new states ($ bn )
24 20 16 12 8 4 0
2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
Existing states
Source : H2 Gambling Capital , January 2023
New states
Fig 17 : 2030 new state launches gross win : contribution by state
Fig 18 : Onshore online sports betting as % GDP : key European markets
0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0
Missouri 5 %
Minnesota 6 %
Texas 7 %
Oklahoma 8 %
Massachusetts 9 %
Others 11 %
Source Source : H2 : H2 Gambling Capital Capital , January , January 2023 2023
Ohio 10 %
California 45 %
2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e
Sweden Denmark UK Spain Italy Average Source : National Gaming Authorities , IMF , H2 Gambling Capital , January 2023 the current headline levels of gross win per adult / gross win as a percentage of GDP suggests
EXPANSION OF IN-PLAY WAGERING
One of the key drivers of growth going forward is expected to be the higher adoption of in-play wagering , which currently accounts for c . 50 % of US sports betting handle and c . 44 % of sports betting gross win . This compares to c . 57 % for Europe overall and c . 64 % for sports in Europe ( excluding horse racing ).
However , this European figure is weighed down by soccer , which has a lower in-play percentage . When looking at “ stop-start ” sports such as basketball
One of the key drivers of growth is expected to be the higher adoption of in-play wagering , which currently accounts for c . 50 % of US sports betting handle and c . 44 % of sports betting gross win
and tennis , the proportion of handle generated through in-play wagering is 84 % and 89 % respectively ( see Fig 19 ).
Data from the US market suggests that soccer currently generates c . 70 % of handle from in-play wagering , with tennis much higher than this . By contrast , for US sports , basketball ( NBA and CBB ) is currently trending around 50 % of handle in-play while football ( NFL and CFB ) and baseball ( MLB ) are trending still down at 35-40 %.
With baseball and football both having similar stop-start characteristics to basketball , there is no reason that US sports betting in-play handle could not get to over 80 % of total wagering .
19