US SPORTS BETTING IN 2023
WHAT WILL DRIVE FUTURE GROWTH ?
H2 analyses the factors that could drive ongoing growth in the US sports betting market and considers whether products or new markets will play decisive roles
PART 4
EXPANSION INTO NEW STATES
A MATERIAL AMOUNT of sports betting gross win growth that H2 Gambling Capital has forecast is based on the activity being made available in new states .
H2 forecasts US sports betting gross win to reach $ 23.2bn by 2030 . Of this growth 57 % is from states where sports betting is already legal , while 43 % is from states where sports betting is expected to legalise in the coming years ( see Fig 16 ).
In terms of the significance of potential new states , California is by far the most important , although the recent ballot result means that H2 does not expect anything to pass in the state for at least another four years . By contrast , Ohio launched sports betting on 1 January 2023 , and Massachusetts followed a year later on 31 January 2023 ; these two states represent almost 20 % of new state launch forecasts ( see Fig 17 ).
GROWTH IN EXISTING STATES
The current run-rate of online sports betting gross win as a percentage of GDP in states with legal sports betting is c . 0.065 % of GDP . It peaked at c . 0.075 % in Q4 2021 due to the seasonality of the business .
When compared to a number of key European markets , this is broadly in line with the average ( see Fig 18 ).
However , there are several key points that show that sports betting revenue can increase further :
• Some markets ’ figures are substantially higher than the average
• A number of markets such as the UK also have substantial online horse race betting gross win , and therefore total online betting gross win is materially higher than that depicted for sports only
• The gross win in the US is artificially inflated by excessive levels of bonusing . Therefore , levels of customer losses are much lower than
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