Prediction Plus Patchwork Equals Pandemic
announced in November 2005 included tactics , models , and other details that eerily resemble today ’ s coronavirus crisis . One scenario , cut from the final report , even described how a respiratory disease would swiftly move from sickening dozens in an Asian village to killing as many as 1.9 million Americans , a framework that foreshadowed future discussions about the COVID-19 outbreak ( Hodge 2007 ). In June 2005 , then-senator Barack Obama wrote in the New York Times , “ We must face the reality that these exotic killer diseases are not isolated health problems half a world away , but direct and immediate threats to security and prosperity here at home ” ( Obama and Lugar 2005 ). But as president four years later , Obama promptly forgot what he had said . He initially abolished the White House ’ s dedicated Office on Global Health Security — the same move that Bush made before him and that Trump followed years later . Additional hurdles were an Obama-era improvement plan created post-H1N1 , which offered suggestions that were batted back by the Republican-led Congress . The Republican-led Congress refused to invest in the nation ’ s hospital preparedness program , which has continued to undergo years of winnowing by congressional appropriators , but would have ensured a sufficient supply of ventilators and masks in the stockpile , a devastating problem that has haunted the response to COVID-19 ( Diamond 2020 ).
Additionally , the US Health Department and Homeland Security Department cut preparedness funding by nearly $ 900 million between fiscal years 2010 and 2011 ( Department of Homeland Security 2015 ). Columbia University ’ s National Center for Disaster Preparedness ( NCDP 2011 ) experts warned , “ The preparedness budget cuts may make it difficult for the nation , and the country ’ s public health agencies and workforce to achieve the goals set by the White House and the CDC for national health security . The New York metropolitan area , in particular , is at greater risk for large-scale catastrophic events , and cannot afford to be less than maximally prepared .” Weighing in from a very personal perspective , Lisa Monaco , Obama ’ s Homeland Security Adviser between 2013 and 2017 , stated that she was often disquieted in the dark hours of the night worrying about an emerging infectious disease ( NYLaw 2020 ).
The 2017 outgoing Obama team warned the Trump administration of a potential infectious disease with COVID-19 ’ s reach and devastation , which was built on the playbook and lessons learned from their experience with Ebola , H1N1 , and other health crises . The Trump team was walked through hypothetical scenarios of a respiratory illness that was framed as the worst pandemic since the 1918 flu , and they were told how to prepare for challenges like ventilator shortages and insufficient personal protective equipment ( PPE ) ( Budrick 2020 ). The Obama officials also warned their successors to be ready to act fast . In a handout given to the Trump team , they were told , “ in a pandemic scenario , days — and even hours — can matter ” ( Sofier 2020 ). Top health preparedness
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