of border controls. It foresees the potential closure of religious spaces used for recruitment and incitement purposes, the possibility of conducting antiterrorist raids leading to the temporary detention of suspects prior to an actual accusation, and the broadening of house arrest criteria.
An evolution of the threat Given these changes to the tactical realities and strategic outlook of radical Islamist cells, it’ s fair to say that the terrorist threat in the country has been evolving over the last 12 months.
Militants maintain strong intent to conduct attacks in France. However, authorities have become more proficient in disrupting complex plots that necessitate coordination, communication and planning between a squad involving a large group of people.
As such, it is highly likely that in 2018, France will be exposed to further lone-assailant attacks in which militants use crude weapons such as knives or cars to cause casualties and score propaganda victories.
It ' s also possible that Sunni extremists may try to manufacture low grade improvised explosive devices or use firearms. Current indicators suggest that successful attacks are likely to be the ones against large soft-targets such as transportation hubs, commercial streets, public gatherings or other venues that are difficult to fully secure.
The fight against terror and the end of the state of emergency In November 2017, the two-year old state of emergency was lifted, and replaced by a new antiterrorism law.
The legislation provides police prefects with an increased capacity to deploy police around key touristic and commercial spaces as well as major mass events. It also extends the duration and scope
The new legislation caused heated debate over the balance between security and public liberties. It will increase the capability of security and intelligence forces to disrupt complex terrorist plots and challenge propaganda networks in the country. However, as demonstrated by the attacks that took place in France under the state of emergency, these laws continue to provide only a partial answer to crude attacks that necessitate a limited planning and coordination phase.
" France will be exposed to the risk of further lone assailant attacks."
19