FRANCE
UNDER
THREAT
Although the French security posture increasingly mitigates the risk of complex attacks, the
country will face an elevated risk of crude terrorist incidents in 2018. GRI Senior
Editor Riccardo Dugulin explains how radical Islamist militants will almost certainly view
France as a high priority target as part of their European strategy.
France at the heart of the A growing internal issue
Islamic State strategy Recent statements released by
The Islamic State (IS), echoing al- the French internal intelligence
terrorist attacks by radical Qaeda, has repeatedly identified (DGSI) provide indicators of a
Islamist militants. These France as a major target, making it changing terrorist threat. The
incidents left five dead and 12 a high priority for attacks in number of militants leaving the
injured - substantially fewer Western Europe. country is dropping, and Sunni
In 2017, France suffered five
than in 2016, when Islamist
radicals killed more than 90
people and left 435 injured. It’s
also fewer than in 2015, when
France was struck by the worst
attacks in its modern history.
Despite lower casualty figures,
French public authorities,
extremists are increasingly staying
The Islamic State has also devoted
in France to plot attacks and make
substantial resources to publishing new recruits.
propaganda messages in French,
directly targeting specific segments In 2018, radical Islamist cells will
of the French population. Evidence
seek to develop small and
that the strategy is working? France dynamic networks on French
has been the Western European
territory. Sunni extremists may
country with the highest number of also try to infiltrate major French
citizens leaving to fight alongside
private and public institutions.
security services and intelligence Sunni extremist insurgents in Syria French officials have also
agencies all assess the terrorist and Iraq. expressed concerns over the
threat associated with Sunni growing risk generated by the
extremist militancy as a major
risk in the coming year.
"Now, Sunni
extremists are
staying in
France instead
of going
abroad."
This IS strategy also capitalises insider threat. Employees of local
on the large number of radical or national public transportation
Islamist networks and cells present and railway networks have been
in France. According to French dismissed due to their radical
intelligence, there are Islamist views.
approximately 15,000 radicalised
individuals in the country, and French radical Islamist networks
rising. Despite the military defeats are also likely to maintain a
of the Islamic State, self-radicalised certain level of communication
supporters of the organisation with other European groups,
continue to be able to find large especially in Spain, Belgium and
amounts of propaganda material Germany.
online.
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