ATTACKING EXPOSED CARDS IN ALTERNATIVE GAMES
In alternative table games , the primary avenue of attack by the advantage player is obvious . Look for a game where the dealer fails to protect the value of cards when removing them from the shuffling machine .
If I can spy one of the dealer ’ s cards or one of the table community cards , I can make my raise-check-fold decisions with information not available to the average customer . Even though alternative table games are subject to a higher house advantage as related to blackjack — anywhere from 2.5 percent to 5 percent compared to blackjack ’ s 0.5 percent — utilizing additional card knowledge can create a huge advantage .
If I find a dealer accidentally providing me hole-card information , I gain 33 percent of their hand information in Three Card Poker or 50 percent of their hand information in Ultimate Texas Hold ’ em . If the dealer inadvertently offers me a peek at one of the community cards , I have future information about the value of my eventual hand .
For example , in Ultimate Texas Hold ’ em , the information gained from seeing one of the five community cards can provide me with the future strength of my hand , and if I can also see one of the dealer ’ s hole cards , the future strength of the dealer ’ s hand as well .
Finding this information is not really that tough . Even your best dealers will become complacent and sloppy over a period of time , and with a little bit of pre-attack scouting , the advantage player can probably construct a profitable game plan for exposed card attacks in your casino .
GAINING COMMUNITY CARD INFORMATION IN MISSISSIPPI STUD POKER
If the advantage player no longer plans to count cards and opts to attack inadvertent exposed cards in alternative table games , where does he or she look first ?
The first alternative game they should look to attack would be Mississippi Stud Poker or one of its derivatives . What makes MSP the most profitable alternative game for the advantage player is the game ’ s betting structure , which provides the player with three wagering opportunities at up to three times the ante bet .
If the advantage player is able to locate a dealer who accidentally exposes the “ flop ” community card , or the first card to be turned up , he or she can make their first betting decision based on three cards of information instead of only two . Knowledge of this one exposed card eliminates the house edge of 5 percent and provides the player with an additional 40 percent to 50 percent mathematical advantage .
Yes , those numbers are correct . Perfect computer play indicates the player will have a 54 percent advantage subject to the ante wager by having prior knowledge of the value of the first community card . A more realistic estimate using a memorized practical strategy is still a lofty 40 percent .
Based on an average of 40 rounds dealt per hour , and a $ 100 ante wager , the advantage player can expect an hourly earning value ( EV ) of $ 1,600 . And that ’ s why this is the game the advantage player looks to attack .
Note : The most common community card seen is the “ flop ” card . However , the costliest card is the last card turned up , the “ river ” card . Seeing the “ river ” card will provide the player with a computer-perfect edge of 104 percent !
In addition to the increase in earning potential , the higher player advantage reduces the amount the player needs as a supporting bankroll . Instead of the required $ 20,000 in blackjack , the advantage player only needs to gather $ 5,000 to $ 10,000 in bankroll funds . The additional multi-wager game volatility is offset slightly by the high player advantage .
Note : If I were to attack this “ high return ” game , I would probably wager only $ 25 to $ 50 on the ante . The lower average wager , though reducing my per-hand earning value , would greatly decrease my exposure to floor and surveillance . If I limited my win amounts to $ 500 or less , I could play undetected for many trips to the money well .
MISSISSIPPI STUD : If the advantage player is able to locate a dealer who accidentally exposes the “ flop ” community card , or the first card to be turned up , he or she can make their first betting decision based on three cards of information instead of only two . Knowledge of this one exposed card eliminates the house edge of 5 percent and provides the player with an additional 40 percent to 50 percent mathematical advantage .