SECURITY & SURVEILLANCE SPECIAL REPORT
SECURITY & SURVEILLANCE SPECIAL REPORT
ALTERNATIVE ADVANTAGE
BY BILL ZENDER
Table-game targets of the advantage player in 2025
People ask me why I don ’ t count cards in blackjack anymore . “ If you are so smart at counting cards , why aren ’ t you still out there playing ?”
Just because I know how to count cards and once counted on a professional level does not mean I should do it again . If the truth be known , I would rather work as a night cook at a Waffle House than count cards . At least I would know at the end of the week I could pick up a paycheck .
People compare the ability to profitably count cards in blackjack with the 2008 movie 21 . All fun and glamor . Traveling to Las Vegas and Atlantic City with pretty girls and lavish accommodations . In reality , this couldn ’ t be further from the truth .
The movie 21 almost ruined the future for a bunch of college students in Denver , Colorado . The same year the movie was released , I was asked to present a two-hour seminar on the mechanics of card counting for the business students at Denver University .
Some members of the faculty were concerned that a larger number of juniors attending the business college were planning on not returning to classes in the fall session . After watching the exploits of the MIT cardcounting team depicted in 21 , the consensus around campus was to learn how to count cards during the summer break and become professional blackjack players , traveling to various casinos all over the world . Who needs a degree in business when you can count cards , sleep until noon , and become rich at the expense of greedy casinos ?
I presented my session to around 300 eager business students in one of the university ’ s lecture halls . The approximate 30 slides of material focused on mathematics , the practice required to play at a professional level , the bankroll requirements so you don ’ t go broke during down swings , and the meager 1 percent return the professional can expect seemed to dampen their expectations .
After presenting the final PowerPoint slide you could hear a pin drop . I successfully crushed the hopes and expectations of all the young people in attendance who thought globetrotting as a card counter would be the answer to their dreams . Mission accomplished .
WHY I WOULD NOT COUNT CARDS
To make card counting worth the professional-level counter ’ s time and effort , he or she would need to wager a minimum or base bet of about $ 100 . The professional is looking to make somewhere between 1.5 times and two times their minimum bet , or $ 150 to $ 200 per hour of play . Since most counters need to move around to different casinos to stay undetected , the best expectation is a total playing time of about four hours per day .
Based on a play week of about 20 hours , the professional counter ’ s theoretical win ( or T-win ) can be estimated at $ 3,000 to $ 4,000 . This is before operational expenses such as the cost of transportation , lodging , and any meals not covered by casino comps .
In addition , a large amount of the professional card counter ’ s time is spent practicing , scouting games and game conditions , and traveling . Playing 20 hours per week could be more of a dream than reality . Depending on availability and distance between casinos , playing time might be reduced by 50 percent .
To wager a minimum bet of $ 100 , the counter will need to operate with a starting bankroll of $ 20,000 if required to use a bet spread of 12 or 16 units . The counter would also be subject to negative fluctuation of up to $ 10K to $ 15K during a normal period of counting play .
This is why flipping omelets at the Waffle House isn ’ t such a bad option .
18 Global Gaming Business FEBRUARY 2025