TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ALL
TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITIES
TODAY. YOU CAN DO MORE THAN
YOU EVER THOUGHT POSSIBLE!
crawler that streams across the bottom of
the TV picture. The 24/7 news cycle places
a great emphasis on the most extreme
content, further amplifying the media’s
negativity bias, and our own.
The best way to counteract negativity bias
is to surround yourself with positive people
and information. For a more accurate
understanding of our world today, I
recommend the following resources:
OurWorldinData.org,
HumanProgress.org, and
Gapminder.org.
I also want to show you why now is the
best time in human history to be alive.
OUR WORLD TODAY
The longevity, peace, free trade,
abundance, and technological advances
we are experiencing today all make for a
better world to live in than ever before. Let’s
dive into each of these a bit deeper.
LONGEVITY
One hundred years ago during World War I,
16 million people died. In the flu pandemic
that same year, 50 million people died (and
the population was much smaller then!).
Since then:
• Human lifespan has doubled
• Literacy has gone from 23 percent to
86 percent worldwide
• The cost of food has fallen 30-fold
• Your chance of being killed in war is
only five percent as likely as in 1917
PEACE
A person’s chance of dying due to violence
is the lowest it has ever been. The 1928
Peace Pact was signed by every country
in the world. What happened next? World
War II. What happened after that? No
more world wars. Global per-capita military
spending is down 28 percent since 1988.
Nations used to go to war to get land to
grow food to eat. Now it is cheaper to buy
goods and resources than to go to war
to acquire the property to produce those
goods and get resources.
FREE TRADE
Free systems of trade and technology
produce more extreme inequality but are
overall beneficial to most people. Global
trade is generating greater opportunity,
tolerance of diversity, social mobility,
commitment to fairness, and dedication
to democracy. The long arc of progress
shows us these trends are unlikely to slow
down—even if nationalistic movements
are currently in vogue. Another benefit of
expanded trade is that trading partners
have an incentive not to kill each other. For
instance, the Chinese South-North Water
Transfer Project (a $90 billion Chinese
aqueduct that is the largest engineering
project in the world!) could be wiped out
by the US in a few hours. China has made
that investment because they feel safe from
attack.
ABUNDANCE
Will we see a world of abundance for all?
In China alone, 750 million people have
risen from poverty in last 25 years—more
than were alive in the world the day the
Declaration of Independence was signed!
More people live in cities than outside of
them. Urban settings (as compared to
rural settings) provide greater access to
education and opportunities, and urban
citizens have a smaller environmental
footprint (e.g., less driving, more modest
homes, etc.).
TECHNOLOGY
Computer storage is 25 million times
cheaper than when I graduated from
college in 1980. Your smartphone has
more computational power than all the
governments on the planet had just 30
years ago. Telecommunications advances
are going to connect every single human
on the planet with a gigabit connection
speed, effectively for free.
TECHNOLOGY BECOMES SAFER
OVER TIME
Driving is one fourth as dangerous as it was
in 1973. Advances in seat belts, airbags,
guardrails, and even EMT coverage have
all contributed to an increase in safety.
Automatic sensing technologies in current
cars are making driving even safer. The
automatic elevator was invented around
1900, but it took more than 50 years (due
to the 1945 NYC elevator operator strike)
before the public became comfortable and
automatic elevators became ubiquitous.
Now we never have to worry about riding in
an operator-less elevator!
FORECASTING THE FUTURE
Here is my guaranteed forecast of the
future:
• Change is coming faster than you
think
• There will be winners and losers
• You’ll hear more from, and about, the
losers than the winners
• Entrenched industries and ways of
thinking will resist the change
• Having accurate information about the
state of the world will increase your
confidence, success, and happiness
My goal is to inspire people to trust the
future tomorrow and to take advantage
of all tremendous opportunities today.
You can do more than you ever thought
possible! u
FALL 2018
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