Geopolitics Magazine November - December 2014 | Page 85

Geopolitics & Daily News Magazine
force(failure of these measures have been proven in Iran case). Putin seems to be a fan of old school
"real politics" gunboat diplomacy but would easily jump into another ideology boat if this would serve
his objectives.
EU and USA need to re-evaluate approach to Russia and take under serious consideration that USSR
and cold war is not returning. This is a new Russia with a leader which is cold, calculate without
emotions and is not hesitating to result in brute force if he thinks that this will serve Russia's purposes.
Putin and Lavrov seem to be adaptive enough, towards whatever comes in front of them. For example
at first , when annexation of Crimea was the first objective they applied many reasons and arguments
of Alexander's Dugin alternative 4th political theory.
Right after that and when V. Putin realized that such an approach was pushing him to the sidelines (for
example the cold treatment he received by all other nations in G20 summit in 2013) he resulted in
milder approach which lead to the "diplomatic win" of Lavrov on Syria crisis.
Our suggestion on new policy-set, is to deal with Russia on a solid new base as an emerging power
which has only 3-4 binding links from the past. Religion and Ethnicity, combined today with cold
business calculations (e.g. the way he is treating Israel and Egypt should be a lesson) and demand for
political respect by all.
Based upon that, Western's intense effort to contain Russia's ability to influence surrounding countries
should be shifted on how to influence Russia, in a good way, by offering a hand of partnership (not
friendship) and try to find this golden line for both region interests.
Putin is not a war monger political leader. He will easily turn to violence in order to make his point but
he will prefer a peaceful solution if he can. It is important to remember that Ukraine crisis was scaled
up when approach to navy port at Black sea at Sevastopol was doubted since "usage pact" was ending.
A critical strategic point for Russia's policy. In order to understand that, a similar example would be if
other countries will be rejecting NATO's ability to use naval bases like Suda, at Greece or Incirlik at
Turkey.
Based upon previous facts there are two options. West can result again in real politics and
gunboat diplomacy which was the one governing the Cold War era proved to be ineffective
then and divided the world in half(and even more today with a multipolar world in place),
or,
accept that Russia , especially at near by region has the upper hand and try to work with
Kremlin instead of trying to limit it down.
We are already experiencing this crisis as a great "push factor" for Russia which is resulting to SCO
strengthening up and attracting countries like Iran and India, Pakistan .. even Turkey (by recent
Erdogan statements). There lies a need to create a "pull factor" that will attract Russia's attention to
participate on such an effort and join forces instead of opposing them.
A great chance to achieve this, is the Arctic region where new found energy reserves are (until today)
not a friction point. Also another chance to work together is "Natural/Environ Y[