Additionally, there are new categories within the respective parties beginning to gain support, as well as younger people fluidly moving between parties. These include fiscally conservative individuals who identify as socially liberal (often labeled Libertarians), and registered Republicans who are creating organizations such as Young Conservatives for the Freedom To Marry; a group that garnered significant support before the Supreme Court decision on June 26th. There are also massive groups of liberal-leaning and Democratic individuals who form groups on sites like Reddit to show support for concealing and carrying guns, which is normally a conservative-leaning stance on the Second Amendment.
So, despite fiscal and social issues being deeply intertwined, why are we exercising our freedom from political parties so strongly now, and what are the estimated $5 Billion Presidential campaigns thinking about it?
Age:
Millennials (born 1980 to 2000) continue to be overwhelmingly Independent or Democratic, with more than 50% claiming to lean Left. In contrast, the Silent Generation (born 1920 to 1940) is the most conservative age cohort, with almost 50% registered as a Republican. Although individuals tend to shift from Liberal to Conservative as they age, the aging population has begun to pose many concerns for the traditional Republican Party.
Race and Ethnicity:
In 1970, only Chicago and New York had more than 1 million black residents. Presently, Census data suggests that in the next couple of years more Americans under the age of 18 will be “minorities” of one kind or another, other than white. Although Republicans maintain a strong voter block among whites, especially southern men, Democrats hold a strong 60% plus advantage among blacks and Asians, and a two-to-one lead among Hispanics. Despite these statistics, the Republican Party has more diverse candidates for voters to choose between in 2016.
Education:
Educational differences in the U.S. have been pervasive for decades, with those having a college degree being split between parties, more educated leaning Left and less educated leaning Right. However, as student loan debt increasingly becomes a pending crisis for the country, more and more twenty to forty year olds are looking for fiscal responsibility measures.
Gender:
While men are evenly split between the parties, women are increasingly leaning Left. However, both married women and men are more likely than their non-married counterparts to lean toward the GOP. What makes this so important for the coming election cycle is not only the growing number of women voters, but the introduction of Hillary Clinton as a candidate.
Religion:
Young adults (those 35 and under) in the U.S. have a pronounced drop in religious affiliation. Although many minorities tend to identify with religious beliefs that better align with the Right, both adults with no religious beliefs and those who are non white tend to lean Left. The primary implications of more and more Americans moving away from an organized religion is that the religious tenets once viewed as sacred are now considered guidelines for “spirituality,” according to the Brookings Institute, making social issues very tough for either political party to take a firm stance on.