1. Watch every movie. There is no substitute for actually watching the films and forming your own opinion (except see below). I went to the movies, a lot. And when I missed a nominated film, I searched for it online and downloaded it. Some films aren’t widely released and there is an increase in films released straight to video. Another great way to see contenders en masse is to wait a few weeks right before the Oscars and look for movie theaters that are showing Oscar movie marathons.
2. Listen to what the critics have to say. Some critics have more credibility than others and some just resonate with your taste. Remember when Siskel & Ebert used to give their picks. Usually you agreed with one of them a little bit more than the other. Also pour over www.rottentomatoes.com to see what the public and some lesser known critics think. Fresh red tomato means they liked it and a green splat means it was not a hit. This just gives you a little more support for your choices or might show where you have completely diverged from mainstream.
3. Check the award circuit list for prior wins. The Oscars are the last in a long line of award shows. It’s very rare that a person or film will be even nominated without a nod or win at the Golden Globes or Screen Actor’s Guild Awards. If an actor or film sweeps a category at those awards, odds are they have a good chance of taking home an Oscar. But every year a dark horse comes out of the independent film world and surprises us.
Now, as a former Oscar winner of sorts, I’m going to give away my 6 proven rules to outsmart the competition so you too can win an Oscar.