Extraordinary And Plenipotentiary Diplomatist July 19 Edition . | Page 24

GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
technology. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund’s
World Economic Outlook Database for January 2018 shows
that the USA economy is larger than China’s, with USA GDP
at USD 19.39 trillion, compared with China’s USD 12.24
trillion. The USA is also stronger militarily, with the USA
defence budget at USD 603 billion, compared with China’s
at USD 150 billion, according to the International Institute of
Strategic Studies in London (Figure 1). dependence on China if they wish to avoid being damaged
by the USA-China confrontation. For both India and Japan,
China is the largest trading partner. The two countries should
reduce the infl uence of China’s economy on their own. Japan
has already begun to do so, ending its offi cial development as-
sistance to China in 2018. In addition, Japanese companies have
relocated their factories from China to Southeast Asia or South
Asia. As a result, the number of Japanese citizens living in
Figure 1: Comparison of the US and China in
Three Areas Figure 2: Number of Japanese in China and in
Comparison with the US
Source: Author. Source: Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Annual Report of Statistics
on Japanese Nationals Overseas (Japanese),” 2018, based on data as of
October 1, 2017.
Thus, given current technology and levels of investment
in R&D, the USA is likely to win the high-tech war. Based
on economic might, it is likely to win the trade war. And,
based on military might, it is likely to deter or win a “hot”
war. These likelihoods, in turn, mean that the USA will likely
be able to increase pressure on China—fi rst, technologically,
second, economically, and fi nally, militarily—until China
stops challenging USA interests.
How should India and Japan respond to USA-China
tensions? In the long run, it will be benefi cial to India and
Japan to cooperate with the United States of America. Why?
To put it simply, because the United States of America will
win. There are three paths India and Japan should take: First:
the two nations should increase investment in high-tech
research. The high-tech war between the USA and China
has shown that the USA is sensitive regarding protecting
itself in the technology realm. India and Japan need their
own technology cards to play, as both would benefi t from a
technological give and take with the USA. In this area, India
and Japan can cooperate with each other. Joint development
projects on artificial intelligence (AI) and AI-related
unmanned ground vehicles (which could possible be used
for patrolling the India-China border) are good examples.
Second: India and Japan can maintain cooperation with
China for now but should not depend on China economically
in the long run. India and Japan must reduce their economic
China has decreased every year from 2012 to 2017 (Figure 2).
Third, given the current USA demand to share the
security burden presented by China, India and Japan should
respond by increasing their own defence capabilities. Indeed,
enhancing security in the Indian Ocean region is not only in
the United States of America’s interest but also in India’s
own interest. Thus, given that the Indian navy lacks anti-
submarine capabilities, it would be benefi cial for India to buy
P-8 anti-submarine patrol planes and MH-60 anti-submarine
helicopters. India can also increase its defence capabilities
along its border with China by using USA-made equipment.
India has imported USA-made C-17 heavy transport planes,
C-130 transport planes, CH-47 heavy lift helicopters, M777
airlift ultralight howitzers, and AH-64 high-altitude attack
helicopters to defend the border area. In the case of Japan, that
nation is acquiring limited off ensive capabilities by importing
100 F-35s stealth fi ghter jets from the USA.
Now is the time to work toward improved security coopera-
tion among India, Japan, and the United States of America. In
a time of USA-China confrontation, India and Japan should
strive to transform this confrontation into an opportunity to
promote even stronger relations with their American ally. 
*Author is a Visiting Fellow at Hudson Institute. He was
awarded his PhD in military strategy and Japan-India aff airs.
24 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 7 • July 2019, Noida