Extraordinary And Plenipotentiary Diplomatist July 19 Edition . | Seite 23

GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
RISING
US-CHINA TENSION
THE IMPLICATIONS FOR
INDIA AND JAPAN
BY DR. SATORU NAGAO*
T
he most notable aspect of the June 2019 G20 summit in
Osaka, Japan, was the US-China summit. The United
States and China agreed to a “ceasefi re” in their “trade
war” and to resume trade talks. However, because the two
countries did not agree to end the trade war altogether, the
confrontation in this domain continues. Meanwhile, the leaders
of India, Japan, and the United States of America held a trilat-
eral summit and promised to hold such a meeting every year.
In December 2017, when the United States published
its new National Security Strategy, the stage was set for a
confrontation with China. The document explicitly stated
that “China and Russia challenge American power.” Shortly
thereafter, in January 2018, the USA imposed tariff s on China,
setting off the so-called trade war. The Chinese retaliated by
imposing their own tariff s on the USA, and the trade war
escalated. In October 2018, when Vice President, Mike Pence
spoke at the Hudson Institute, he said: “Beijing is employing a
whole-of-government approach, using political, economic, and
military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its infl uence
and benefi t its interests in the United States of America.”
Therefore, he explained, citing the National Security Strategy,
“the United States of America has adopted a new approach
to China.” Furthermore, in June 2019 the US Department of
Defence published its Indo-Pacifi c Strategy Report, which
refers to China as a “revisionist power.”
USA-Chinese relations have remained tense since these
developments, and countries such as India and Japan have
had to adapt to the new circumstances. This raises several
questions. In the long run, which side will win, and what
are the implications for India and Japan? Why has the USA
recently stepped up its actions vis-à-vis China? What should
India and Japan expect from the USA’s new approach to China,
and how should they respond? The United States of America
is now the world’s only superpower, a status it acquired by
defeating Germany and Japan in World War II and then the
Soviet Union in the Cold War. If there is a lesson from this
history, what is it?
Because of its unfortunate and tragic history of war with
the USA, Japan knows not to underestimate the seriousness of
the United States of America’s strong stance on China. After
World War I, the USA developed plans for possible future
war scenarios with various countries, including Germany and
Japan (such as the “War Plan Orange” the “War Plan Black” or
“Rainbow plans”). These plans were not precisely worked out
but indicated a general strategic direction. When these plans
were declassifi ed in 1974, many were surprised to fi nd that
the USA even had a war plan to confront the United Kingdom
and Canada (the “War Plan Red”). From a realist perspective,
these plans were justifi able, even if some of the potential
“enemies” were in fact allies. American strategic thinking is
indeed quite realistic, and thus the Japanese take seriously
the explicit statements in the National Security Strategy and
the Indo-Pacifi c Strategy Report. Japan understands that,
there is a high possibility that, the USA currently has a plan
for confronting China.
Additional evidence suggests that recent USA actions are
part of a long-term strategy. A good example is the so-called
high-tech war between the USA and China. Beginning in
2018 and continuing this year, the USA has imposed sanctions
against Chinese technology entities, blocking their ability to
buy USA software and components. ZTE, for example, was
acutely aff ected by these sanctions. Although this is a policy
of the Trump administration, the process behind the policy
started several years ago under the Obama administration.
In 2012, the USA Congress was already addressing concerns
over Huawei and ZTE, issuing an investigative report on
the national security issues posed by these two Chinese
telecommunication giants. Thus, recent events are part of a
long-term strategy stemming from a view of China shared by
Republicans and Democrats.
Why has the USA recently toughened its policy toward
China? First, China’s activities are directly challenging USA
interests. But second, the USA recognizes that it might only
be able to win if it steps up now. Some simple facts confi rm
that now is the best time for the USA to pressure China. For
example, according to fi gures published by the UNESCO
Institute for Statistics in July 2018, the United States of
America invests USD 476 billion in research and development,
compared with China’s USD 371 billion. This means that
the USA still has a fi nancial advantage in developing new
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 7 • July 2019, Noida • 23