ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 8

EU28 & EFTA3 Annual Car Sales Trends and Forecast

.

Whilst we have only reduced new car sales forecasts for 2017 from a 5.2% increase to a 5.1% rise for the EU28 and EFTA3, we think the mix
between left hand drive and right hand drive markets will swing back towards sales in the UK.
Last quarter we expected the UK to see a fall of around 5.4% in new car sales next year, but there is now likely to be some recovery in
sterling versus the exchange rates used by OEMs during their 2017 budget setting rounds and this will enable them to increase discounts
against the plans they are currently finalising. Therefore we now expect UK sales to fall by just 4.2% in 2017 against the circa 2.7m car sales
for 2016 as OEMs aim to meet their budgets through a further round of pushed sales and discounting.
With only a 5.1% rise likely for Europe in 2017, we now believe it will only just match the 2007 passenger car sales record of a little over
16.0 million. Whilst the rate of growth is expected to slowdown going forward, 2018 is still set to become a record year with sales hitting
16.3 million. However we are seeing clear evidence of car sales reducing in countries like the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK
Of the major markets, only Germany is expected
day registrations will play a significant part of
that growth. Portugal looks set to break back
above the 200,000 barrier this year with further
strong growth of around 12.8% in 2017.
The overall geopolitical picture indicates a
slower but continuing European new car sales
growth over the next couple of years but with a
strong likelihood of a downturn before the end of

Total Passenger Car Sales Millions

to see the rate of growth increase in 2017, but

18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0

Germany
3.85
0.19
1.63

0.20
1.61

2.33

2.49

8.0

4.0
2.0

France

Italy

Spain

Portugal

ROE

4.08
3.93

10.0

6.0

UK

0.21
1.16

0.16
0.95
2.16

2.16

2.00

2.06

2.05

2.34

2.40

2.13

3.47

3.15

3.09

3.94

3.15
3.43

3.58
3.30

3.20

0.10
0.70
1.40

0.11
0.72
1.30

3.33

0.22
0.98

0.15
0.81

1.96

1.75

2.25

2.20

1.90

1.79

1.80

2.03

1.94

2.04

2.26

2.92

3.17

3.08

2.95

2.30
1.99

3.81

3.65

0.14
0.86
1.36

0.18
1.03
1.57

0.20
1.15
1.84

4.13

4.30

4.33

4.27

0.23
1.26

0.25
1.32

0.24
1.40

0.24
1.34

0.22
1.33

2.07

2.11

1.98

1.87

1.80

4.16

1.92

2.03

2.12

2.13

2.14

2.05

2.00

2.63

2.70

2.59

2.46

2.43

2.50

2.48

2.52

3.04

3.21

3.40

3.65

3.79

3.89

3.87

3.67

0.0

2019.
Source:

European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3

ACEA.BE – Historic data Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd - Forecasts

7