EU28 & EFTA3 Annual Car Sales Trends and Forecast
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Whilst the UK is currently expected to see a fall of around 5.4 % in new car sales next year and Switzerland continues to see new sales under pressure due to exchange rates , a total rise of
5.2 % in 2017 for the EU28 and EFTA3 should see the 2007 passenger car sales record being beaten with sales topping 16.18 million . 2018 is expected to be another record year with sales hitting 16.5 million before we see a downturn in 2019 and falling sales from 2020 as a combination of factors including Brexit , exchange rates and legislation cause a drop in sales .
There is further bad news for the automotive industry with Paris considering extending its current Monday to Friday ban on vehicles older than 20 years to all combustion engine vehicles over 9 years old by 2020 , several other European cities are also considering measures such as tolls or selective car bans in the next few years and most severe of all is a planned total ban on petrol and diesel fuelled cars from 2025 in Norway .
With so many of these measures barely 4 years away the challenge for asset risk managers and funders is quantifying their exposure . Vehicles they are taking onto their books today will become a future pool of used vehicles for which the market place will have been drastically reduced or even potentially removed due to legislative action .
Total Passenger Car Sales Millions
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Germany UK France Italy Spain Portugal ROE
|
3.85
0.19
1.63
2.33
2.00
|
4.08
0.20
1.61
2.49
2.06
|
3.93
0.21
1.16
2.16
2.05
|
3.15
0.16
0.95
2.16
2.30
|
3.43
0.22
0.98
1.96
2.25
|
3.58
0.15
0.81
1.75
2.20
|
3.30
0.10
0.70
1.40
1.90
|
3.20
0.11
0.72
1.30
1.79
|
3.33
0.14
0.86
1.36
1.80
|
3.65
0.18
1.03
1.57
1.92
|
3.97
0.21
1.16
1.86
2.07
|
4.16
0.24
1.27
2.14
2.16
|
4.33
0.25
1.33
2.29
2.17
|
4.36
0.24
1.41
2.15
2.18
|
4.30
0.25
1.35
2.03
2.09
|
4.19
0.23
1.34
1.96
2.04
|
2.34 |
2.40 |
2.13 |
1.99 |
2.03 |
1.94 |
2.04 |
2.26 |
2.48 |
2.63 |
2.69 |
2.58 |
2.45 |
2.42 |
2.49 |
2.51 |
3.47 |
3.15 |
3.09 |
3.81 |
2.92 |
3.17 |
3.08 |
2.95 |
3.04 |
3.21 |
3.42 |
3.63 |
3.68 |
3.79 |
3.77 |
3.57 |
Source : ACEA . BE – Historic data Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd - Forecasts
European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 2 7