ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q2 2016 | Page 16
France – Ban on older cars creates younger used upside
Concerns regarding security and terrorism remain a drain on growth
forecasts, whilst
hilst falling house prices add to the strain on the
construction industry. Despite this, private consumption remains the
driving
force
of
growth
as
net
exports
remain
negative.
Unemployment levels are almost stagnant whilst the headline deficit
rates show only marginal improvements due to the low interest rates.
Unlike in previous years the bonus/malus scheme has remained
unchanged from the previous year easing the pressure a little on
OEMs. However the recently introduced Paris ban on cars registered
before Jan 1997 creates a potential pull on younger used
use vehicles
which is good news as used car residual values are continuing to rise.
This increase in RVs should help support lower balloon finance and
lease rates which in turn will bolster new car sales which are already
up 8.3% YTD although this is expected
ted to slow down during the second
half of the year with a rise of just 4.1% in 2017 before flattening out
around 7% under the market peak of 1990. New Light Commercial
Economic Forecasts - France
GDP growth (%, yoy)
Inflation (%, yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.6
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.2
10.3
1.2
10.4
1.3
10.2
1.7
10.1
Public budget balance (% of GDP)
(4.0)
(3.5)
(3.4)
(3.2)
Current account balance (% of GDP)
(2.3)
(1.5)
(1.1)
(1.0)
Gross public debt (% of GDP)
120
115
95.4
95.8
96.4
97.0
RV Index: 36 months / 90,000 kms
Average
France
110
105
100
95
90
2010 01
2010 04
2010 07
2010 10
2011 01
2011 04
2011 07
2011 10
2012 01
2012 04
2012 07
2012 10
2013 01
2013 04
2013 07
2013 10
2014 01
2014 04
2014 07
2014 10
2015 01
2015 04
2015 07
2015 10
2016 01
2016 04
Vehicles “LCV” sales are also strong rising 12.4% 2016 YTD.
.
Sources: European Commission – Economic
nomic Forecasts Experteye AG - RV Index
Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd - Forecast vehicle sales
European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 2
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