ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q2 2016 | Page 12

European Passenger Car Residual Value Trends . Residual values in the UK continue to ease back as the new car market gets closer to overheating. With Brexit a little over 2 years away RV setters need to consider what the economic situation will look like and with it the consumer demand for vehicles they are putting onto their fleet today. Added to this are the changes in accounting standards, IFRS 16 Leases, which sees leased assets moving back onto the lessor’s balance sheet. Southern Europe still has some way to go before it is clear of its economic troubles and with new ones potentially just around the corner, e.g. the banking crisis in Italy and Portugal plus potential trade barriers with key export % RV Index - 36 Months / 90,000 Km 130 120 110 100 90 80 2010 2011 EU Average Italy UK 2012 2013 2014 France Spain Index 100 = Values in 2010 2015 Germany Portugal 2016 ytd Source: Experteye AG markets like the UK there is a lot to be concerned about. Despite this the overall opinion of RV setters’ remains positive with values continuing to see strong gains, especially in Spain and Italy. Even the generally more cautious German and French RV setters have been pushing up RVs for the last couple of years as a general wave of positivity surrounds the automotive industry. The most notable exception to this positive trend is Portugal, however this is in part due to the semi-closed position of the country due to the used vehicle import taxation which meant RVs have fallen less and thus have less ground to recover. RVs are generally on the increase though but underlying factors will be playing a significant part in the decisions taken over RVs. The Brexit result has caused shock waves across Europe and beyond and whilst the immediate cataclysmic aftermath predicted by some doomsayers has failed to materialise there is a strongly cautious view being taken to its impact. With sterling falling new vehicle discounting is likely to switch back to the euro zone and this will undoubtedly see RVs plateau and even start to fall there in the medium term. European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 2 11