Summer Fires
By Neil Phillips # 1744
Our coming fire season really began 85 million years ago as Australia started to move away from Antarctica and headed northward at a pace that brought it to the sub-tropics today . For Southeast Australia this continental migration has placed us within a Mediterranean climate of hot dry summers and cooler wet winters . Conditions suited vegetation such as our widespread eucalypt forests . Vegetation growth in Spring , followed by the summer weather of high-pressure and low-pressure systems separated by fronts , included the occasional passage of thunderstorms without rain . These conditions came with dry lightning that could quickly create fire fronts that were kilometres long in the forests . Those fires would eventually die down when they ran out of fuel , the next rain fell , or Autumn set in .
As Australia became inhabited over 50,000 years ago , fire was a benefit for warmth and cooking , useful for capturing food , and to be treated with some respect . Moving to safe areas was presumably the normal response if an uncontrolled fire was in the vicinity .
The advent of permanent dwellings such as those around Sydney from 1788 posed a new challenge that moving everything out of the way of a fire was not always an option . We have been partially successful addressing this with safer building material , water supplies , green belts , and firefighters with their equipment . We hardly expect forest fires in major cities , but the same safeguards are not always available in smaller communities including those of the tree-changers and the places where we go four-wheel driving .
Recognising the significant risks of fire , community leaders warn us every year to be prepared for summer fires . The weather forecasts inform of higher risk periods , safety plans are recommended , and training takes place for those in the regions .
To lose anything in a fire can be sad , terrifying , and costly . And yet every year there are stories of how suddenly a certain fire happened and it was all without warning .
But that is an incomplete telling of the story . The warnings date back 85 million years . Each Spring we have notices with fire regulations . Daily through Summer , the fire clocks in so many towns show the degree of fire risk from low to extreme . Regular news reports complement this information flow .
A very curious statement was made by an emergency officer on television about four days before the terrible Black Saturday Kinglake Marysville fires : the gist of the comments related to how worried authorities were about the weather four days hence , i . e ., the weather forecast for Black Saturday 7 th February 2009 . It turned out the weather forecast for the weekend was correct , the warnings were spot on , but it was a prescient message that not all understood . That was before Code Red days in Victoria . Maybe the message should have been “ read my lips – I am seriously concerned about your wellbeing next Saturday ”. Come that fatal weekend it was too late to charge the mobile phone from the non-existent mains power using the burnt-out mobile network to see if the fire over the hill was coming towards you . Clue : if you can smell smoke , then it is .
Where does climate change fit in ? Climate modelling is just an informed estimate but the scenario of summer fires in SE Australia is unlikely to go away even if the global temperature changes up or down several degrees . We cannot control the size and location of all forest fires , but we can influence their impact through planning .
Pajero Club Trips
Duty of care means looking after oneself and others : duty of care is a responsibility for everyone and not just trip leaders or Club Committee . Serious forest fires can occur in Victoria quite early in summer : think of the Lancefield and Mt Hickey fires at the start of October 2015 . Our planning can start today by learning what weather signs to be aware of , and when to re-arrange or postpone trips if the conditions are poor ( it does not need to be a Code Red day to be dangerous ). Temperature is important but the wind strength and direction must be appreciated too .