Insight
Exhibitions in a tariffed world
Media and events entrepreneur, Dr Barış Onay recently explored, at UFI’ s MEA Conference in Cairo, some of the big economic issues of the moment and how they are affecting the trade show business. Here he distills the main points of that presentation, adjusted for the latest twists and turns in the tariffs saga for EW:
he topic of our headline is
T particularly challenging to write about and remain relevant, as the landscape changes literally every day. One day, it is doom and gloom; the next, there is a trade deal announcement. In any given week, there are threats of reciprocation, then postponement of tariffs, then some deal-making, and then some more tariff announcements.
The main takeaway is Uncertainty, and trade does not like that.
The whole thing started with US‘ Liberation Day’ announcements on 2 April. The US government unilaterally imposed tariffs on imported goods, raising their prices and making them less competitive in the US market. Consequently, almost all international businesses exporting to the US are experiencing disruption at varying degrees.
Why is this a global problem? Simply because the US is the world’ s biggest importer of goods, and that automatically makes it the primary export market for many countries. These tariffs, if and when they fully kick in( EU tariffs have been postponed for 90 days, now due mid-July; the once 145 % China tariffs are lowered to 30 % for 90 days, now due mid-August, and so on), will surely disrupt global trade and make exporters re-evaluate which markets they focus on.
The top 10 biggest exporters to the US are Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Ireland, India, and Italy. In this picture, Mexico and Canada are currently exempt, China tariffed at 30 %, EU countries at 20 %, and others at varying degrees.
From a US exhibition organiser’ s perspective, this is problematic. While purely local shows might remain less affected, events with a strong international presence could face significant challenges. Securing participation from exhibitors in sanctioned countries( virtually the whole world) could prove difficult, especially in an environment where baseline economic growth was projected to hover in the mid-single digits to begin with. This impact would be even more pronounced for global exhibitions that rely on prominent
Left: Barış Onay
“ Producers from countries who typically couldn’ t compete with European suppliers in the Russian market suddenly seized the opportunity. The [ 2014 ] show saw an increase in new exhibitors, which ultimately became a resounding success.” country-specific international exhibitors and national pavilions.
For non-US organisers, the outlook, albeit better, remains uncertain. Ongoing trade disruptions are expected to hinder global growth. When paired with our industry ' s business-as-usual growth trajectory – generally pegged at global GDP plus a few percentage points – it becomes clear what challenges may lie ahead in the coming term.
Moreover, the Q2 timing is the worst it could have been. This is a disruption that will affect the whole year, and there is not enough time to fix it.
The UFI Global Exhibition Barometer, published in February 2025, identified geopolitical challenges and global economic developments as the second and third most pressing business concerns in the short term, respectively. Notably, global economic developments emerged as the top priority for the medium term. A testament to sharp foresight from industry leaders!
Is there a silver lining to all this for exhibitions? At the UFI MEA Conference in Cairo, I had the chance to share a personal story that resonates with the current situation.
In 2014, as the global digital director for ITE( now Hyve), I witnessed a pivotal moment when the EU and other nations imposed economic sanctions on Russia. This happened just months before our flagship event, WorldFood Moscow, a premier food exhibition where over 50 % of exhibitors were international, predominantly from the EU. The situation took a turn for the worse when, merely a month before the show, Russia responded with a sweeping ban on all European food imports. Not a high tariff, a total ban.
The outlook was bleak. We thought the big pavilions would be cancelled and had no immediate mitigation plans in place. However, markets tend to correct themselves and like to do so face-to-face.
26 Issue 3 2025 www. exhibitionworld. co. uk