[D ATA ]
CAPITAL PLAYER VOLUME INDEX
MARCH
5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 AUG 10 OCT 10 APR 10 DEC 10 JUN 10 AUG 11 OCT 11 APR 11 DEC 11 JUN 11 FEB 11 FEB 12
DOT.COM INTERNET POKER KPIs
Average RG Pot Size/Buy-in
AVERAGE POT S IZE (€)
Base 100, 1 January 2003
8.31
3.92
TOUR N AME N T B UY- I N (€)
CASH GAME PLAYERS BY STAKE
HIGH 1.3% MEDIUM 8.1% LOW 20.8% MICRO 69.1%
1. Onshore Regulated Sportsbetting Only with a 5% Turnover Tax – Leading offshore operators take onshore licences and close down their offshore operations targeting Germany. 2. Onshore Regulated Sportsbetting Only with a 5% Turnover Tax – Leading offshore operators do not take onshore licences and retain their offshore operations targeting Germany. 3. The EC in?uences the Länder to change their policy and all products are licensed/regulated with a reasonable number of licences/level of tax established – i.e. up to 20%. The results of our modelling suggest it would be in the ?scal interest of Germany for Scenario 3 to be adopted. Under this model, H2 believes that by 2015, 90% of the German consumer egaming market would take place in the national regulated scheme, generating a total gross win across the three major product verticals (betting, casino and
poker) of €1.87bn and generating tax income of just under €1.08bn during the period 1 July 2012 to 31 December 2015. Under Scenarios 1 and 2, the total size of the German egaming market will grow over the coming four years. Under Scenario 1, the total size of the onshore regulated market would be expected to reach a gross win of €768m in 2015, which would account for more than 58% of the total value of the German player market. H2’s analysis suggests Scenario 2 would lead to total market larger than Scenario 1 at €1.45bn as commercial offshore ?rms continue to offer all product verticals to German customers, but only 37% of the market will take place within the onshore scheme. The resulting tax revenue for the German government between 2012 and 2015 would be approximately €375m under Scenario 1 and €219m under Scenario 2; 65% and 80% respectively lower than the level generated by the optimum
TOURNAMENT PLAYERS BY BUY-IN
HIGH 6.5% MEDIUM 8.7% LOW 8.5% MICRO 76.3%
Scenario 1. These ?nancial bene?ts come in addition to all of the additional bene?ts afforded to the customer of being able to play within a well-regulated onshore egaming environment that offers good value.
All sources: H2 Gambling Capital October 2011 - (NB. Constant Exchange Rates used – 1.4519 USD:€) – Updated each quarter
EXPECTED INTERACTIVE GAMBLING
2012E-2015E
100
GERMAN ONSHORE GROSS YIELD (%)
Scenario 1
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Scenario 2 Scenario 3
81 %
87%
90 %
70% 56 % 42% 32% 23% 35% 37% 59% 58%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
ABOUT H2 H2 offers the most comprehensive egaming/land-based data service and detailed market reports and bespoke consultancy. In total the subscriber area of H2’s website now includes almost 2m data points with an average of up to 20,000 being published/updated each week. H2’s internet poker data service now extends to 10 international sites and three dot.fr sites. The product provides up to 250 data points for each poker platform covered each day. H2 is a Gerson Lehrman partner ?rm and, together with TrustPartners (Italy), is a member of Global iGaming Advisors (GiGA) with Gaming Edge Associates (UK) and Spectrum Gaming Group (US). H2 is regarded as the leading source of data regarding the value and volume of the activity across the global gambling industry. For further details, visit www.h2gc. com or by emailing [email protected].
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