[D ATA ]
H2 GAMBLING CAPITAL PLAYER VOLUME INDEX
MAY - DEC
€4909 €4738 €4638 €4548 €4416 €4383 €4358 €4285 €4416 €4102 €4023 €3886 €4021 €3899 €3944 €3804 €3627 €3549 €3570 €3510 €3323 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL €4760
Base 100, 1 January 2003
JAN - APRI L
FIGURE BREAKDOWN
MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JAN - DEC
5,000
4,500
€4,416 €4,383 €4,127 €4,102 €4,358 €4,285 €4,738 €4,638 €4,023 €4,909 €4,760 €4,548 €3,886 €3,549 €3,170 €3,570 €3,510 €3,323 €4,021 €3,627 €3,093 €3,899 €3,944 €3,804
2 01 0
4,000
2 01 1
3,500
€3170
€3093
3,000
2010
2,500
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
2011
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN
2012
FEB MAR APR
2 01 2
the value of a market. This avoids the possibility of an isolated high or low month temporarily affecting our forecasts. That said, H2 now expects the total gross win generated by the Italian remote onshore regulated gambling market to reach in the region of €895m, which would be 21% ahead of the 2011 level. This assumes no additional products (such as betting exchanges or gaming machines) are introduced in the current year. Indeed, we have yet to include any new products in our core forecasts through to 2015 given the uncertainty regarding timing. Therefore, H2 is forecasting that total Italian onshore regulated remote gross win will not surpass the €1bn mark until 2014 and will reach €1.04bn by 2015, by which time it is expected that the Italian onshore regulated remote gambling market will account for just short of 20% of total regulated turnover and just under 5% of gross win. Given the differences in margin between some online and offline product verticals, the latter is the best comparator. The remote percentage is still low in Italy compared to Northern European nations, where 20-30% of gross win is more the norm. H2 believed that some of this differential will be closed, though
much of it is due to cultural and climate differences rather than something that will be completely eroded over time. The Italians avoided an own goal earlier in the year when the country backtracked on a proposed change in the taxation of cash poker and casino games from 20% of gross win to 1% of turnover. At the current payout rates of approximately 2.8% for cash poker and 3% for casino tables, the tax burden for companies would have increased by 66.7% and 78.6% respectively, if margins were retained. Clearly this would have reduced marketing and bonus budgets, with initial analysis suggesting these sectors could have been up to 35% lower in terms of turnover and over 20% smaller in terms of gross win.
ITALIAN REMOTE GROSS WIN BY PRODUCT
2011
BINGO 55 CASINO 49 LOTTERY 19 BETTING 229 CASINO 193 BINGO 82
2015e
LOTTERY 26 BETTING 204
SKILLS 384
SKILLS 534
ITALIAN ONSHORE REMOTE GROSS WIN (€M)
ABOUT H2
H2 o?ers the most comprehensive eGaming/land-based data service as well as detailed market reports and bespoke consultancy. The new subscriber area of H2’s website now includes almost two million data points with up to 200 new/updated datasets published each year. Further details may be found at www. h2gc.com or by emailing [email protected].
1200 1000
1,038
800
940
1,002 895 737 690 517
600 400 200
73 228
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
www.egmagazine..com
23