[D ATA ]
KEY STATISTICS
This month, with so many European markets progressing towards, or in the early stages of, an onshore regulated scheme, we revisit the ?rst market to regulate and assess how its performance in?uences how we forecast the value of others
AVERAGE REAL MONEY PLAYER NUMBERS
Ring games & tournaments
127,600 105,400 105,400
H 2 P O K E R D ATA
Internet poker across the market still slightly ahead of trend
Average internet poker real money player volumes were sequentially ahead by 0.7% in April, although total activity was down month-on-month – at 105,400, another post-Black Friday high. Last year, the fact that Black Friday took place on 15 April meant that sequentially volumes fell by 10.7%. A better indication of the performance at this time of year can be seen from the respective falls in sequential average player volumes of 2% and 1.1% in April 2010 and 2009. H2 has now ?nalised its internet poker gross revenues (including bonuses) for 2011 at €3.06bn, down 22.3% on the 2010 high of €3.93bn. Our provisional ?gure for Q1 2012, subject to reconciliation with a ?nal set of results, is €779m with early indications showing that Q2 will be in the region of €690m. Beyond this, it is difficult to assess the full-year numbers, as much will depend on the timing of the regulation we already know of, and to a greater extent whether the state of New Jersey can pass and implement internet poker regulation by the ?nal quarter of the year as some have suggested. At the moment, without an assumption that there will be any regulated onshore internet poker activity in the US in the current year, H2 forecasts an internet poker gross win of €3.17bn, which would be 3.8% ahead of last year and a level surpassed only in 2009 and 2010. Based on the 2.9% and 3.7% sequential falls in average real money activity in May 2009 and 2010, H2 would expect a 2.5% to 2.8% fall in APRIL 12 APRIL11 APRIL 10
average activity in May, taking average real money players from 102,400 to 102,800. This would suggest a 0.45% to 0.75% increase in total activity as a result of the extra day. As at the end of April 2012, H2’s Internet Poker Volume Index (H2VI) stood at 4,141, 7.2% ahead of the level at the end of March. This equates to 6.7% ahead of the level a year earlier, which is the ?rst time we report a post-Black Friday comparison but still 29% less than the peak of 5,825 on 3 March 2010. Last month, H2 stated that it expects the index to break the 4,000 mark in February/March. H2 would expect to see the 4,000+ level maintained well into May but the level is expected to fall below this over the summer months and regain it in October, perhaps then moving to between 4,500 and 4,800 by the end of the year.
€329m €252m €242m
Growth in Italy slower than expected but outlook positive
At the time of writing, the latest comprehensive data for the Italian onshore-regulated remote gambling market is for February. We know remote sportsbetting handle was up 4.7% sequentially in March, up 0.9% year-onyear, with interactive poker and casino down 1.6% (up 325% following the introduction of cash poker and casino table games in July 2011). Gross win was down 10.7%, up 5.6% year-on-year. Italian remote gross win peaked in October 2011 at €80.4m and it looks likely that March will see an overall year-on-year rise in gross win, although this is generally the month when interactive activity typically peaks. This pre-Christmas peak was despite the fact that onshore-regulated interactive cash poker and casino games were not even six months old at the end of 2011. In fact, all three types of regulated casino and poker continued to grow until January. The low margins of these games meant total market turnover also continued to grow until January, reaching a peak of just over €1.4bn. However, it fell back by 9% sequentially in February despite the fact that after a return to normalised remote sportsbetting margins, gross win was ahead by 21%. H2 only adjusts its market forecasts each quarter unless there has been a major announcement that will impact
GROSS GAMING YIELD: REAL MONEY INTERNET POKER (€M)
Ring games & tournaments
D OT.CO M I N T ER N ET PO KER KPIS CASH GAME PLAYERS BY STAKE
HIGH
April 2012
TOURNAMENT PLAYERS BY BUY-IN
MEDIUM
1.2% 6.9% 22.4% 69.4%
LOW
7.7% 8.3% 9.4%
MICRO
74.5%
All sources: H2 Gambling Capital May 2012 - (NB. Constant Exchange Rates used – 1.4519 USD:€) – Updated each quarter
€9.39
RING GAME AVERAGE POT SIZE
€2.37
AVERAGE TOURNAMENT BUYIN
22
www.egrmagazine.com