Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist September 2019 | Page 51

perspective
Netanyahu has trumpeted his relationship with Trump as one of the
defining achievements of his prime ministry, highlighting the strategic
meeting of minds on the Iranian threat. The prospect of a Trump meeting
with one of Iran’s top leaders would thus undercut all of Netanyahu’s
election rhetoric of Israeli-U.S. strategic understandings.
development and malign activities in the region. Toward this
end, Trump authorized Sen. Rand Paul to float the idea of a
meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, and Trump
has softened his rhetoric toward Iran, going
so far as to express regret over a failed Iranian
missile test (while also revealing classified
imagery at the same time).
The question, then, is what would happen
if the Iranians issued a public statement
that dangled a meeting with Trump at
the upcoming session of the UN General
Assembly? The prospect of a meeting would
immediately seize the world’s attention.
More importantly, it would throw the Israeli
political system into a tizzy. Netanyahu
has trumpeted his relationship with Trump
as one of the defining achievements of his prime ministry,
highlighting the strategic meeting of minds on the Iranian
threat. The prospect of a Trump meeting with one of Iran’s
top leaders would thus undercut all of Netanyahu’s election
rhetoric of Israeli-U.S. strategic understandings.
Netanyahu recently provided evidence of this concern when
reportedly he was desperate to contact Trump during the G-7
meetings to argue against French attempts to mediate a meeting
with Zarif. And the concern is real, not only because of the
certain impact such a meeting would have on Israeli politics,
but also the real possibility that Trump would emerge from
an essentially photo-op meeting with an announcement of a
breakthrough, much like what has happened with North Korea.
There is a different scenario, however, that would work in
Netanyahu’s favour. For some years, Israel has seen a marked
improvement in its relations with some Arab countries,
primarily in the Gulf. Based on mutual concerns about Iran,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar have reportedly
engaged in quiet cooperation with Israel on security and
intelligence sharing. In some cases, Israelis have been allowed
to visit these countries — excluding Saudi Arabia — but the
Arab states have calibrated the burgeoning ties carefully so
as not to arouse domestic opposition.
The question here is what would happen if Saudi Crown
Prince Mohamed Bin Salman announced his intention
to visit Israel and Palestine for talks with the Israeli and
Palestinian leadership? Such an announcement would send
positive shockwaves throughout Israeli society, for Israelis
would see a concrete manifestation of
Netanyahu’s claim that he has engineered a
sea-change in Israel’s standing in the region.
The prospect of such a visit would also add
credibility to the promised peace plan of
the American administration, a plan that is
widely believed to have been coordinated
with both Netanyahu and Bin Salman.
For Bin Salman to announce such a
visit would be a tremendous departure from
Saudi Arabia’s traditional cautious posture.
The Saudis did author the 2002 Arab Peace
Initiative and have not denied reports of quiet
cooperation with Israel. But the Saudis have always turned
down ideas to move the relationship more into the open. For
example, in 2009 President Obama asked the Saudis to open
their airspace to Israeli commercial aviation as an inducement
for Israel to freeze settlements in the occupied territories; the
Saudis said no. The prospect of a public visit now, therefore,
would reverse more than seven decades of Saudi policy while
delivering a pre-election bonus to Netanyahu.
To be sure, neither of these scenarios is likely to happen.
Neither the Iranian nor the Saudi leadership thinks in terms of
grand gestures, and neither is inclined to play in the uncertain
politics of Israel. For both, the reaction at home to even an
announcement of a meeting or a visit might be too much to
endure, and thus domestic considerations would trump the
possible consequences of actually carrying through with an
announcement.
A September surprise that impacts the Israeli election?
Not likely from the region, and not much effect if from
Washington. n
The above extracts contributed by him for New York Daily
News are reproduced with his consent.
*Author is a professor in Middle East policy studies at
Princeton University. He is a former U.S. ambassador to
Israel and Egypt.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 9 • September 2019, Noida • 51