Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist September 2019 | Page 50

perspective
A Persian
or Saudi
September
surprise?
BY DANIEL KURTZER*
I
n the run-up to the Sept. 17 Israeli elections, the Israeli
media have speculated on what President Donald
Trump will do to help re-elect Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu. It is unlikely that Trump will do anything more
to advance peace, or whether such a move would help
Netanyahu.
Indeed, the announcement today that Trump’s Middle East
peace envoy, Jason Greenblatt, is resigning casts doubt on
whether the United States will even unveil Trump’s so-called
“ultimate deal” after the election. Trump has already gifted to
Netanyahu American recognition of Israeli sovereignty in the
Golan Heights and moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv
to Jerusalem. Current speculation of what Netanyahu might
ask of Trump ranges from the recognition of the extension of
Israeli sovereignty in parts of the West Bank to support for a
U.S.-Israeli defense treaty.
Neither of these, however, is likely to swing undecided
voters to support Netanyahu, since Trump’s unwavering
support for the Israeli right’s policies is a known factor, old
news.
There are two long-shot possibilities to consider that could
have a significant impact on the Israeli elections, one that
would favor Netanyahu and another that would undermine
his chances for re-election. Neither is likely, for the reasons
noted below; but both are worth considering to understand the
value of what a real surprise means in democratic elections.
Iran, paradoxically, holds the strongest card, one that could
arm the opposition to Netanyahu with a powerful electoral
weapon. As we have seen in recent weeks, Trump is quite
desperate to meet the Iranian leadership, believing that his self-
proclaimed skills as a deal-maker could unlock the diplomatic
stalemate with Iran over its nuclear program, missile
50 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 9 • September 2019, Noida