their discontented populations with increasing severity.
The second U.S. policy failure vis a vis Iran has been to ignore the Palestinian issue, which for most Arabs is symbolic of the contempt their
governments and the U.S. has for the downtrodden in Arab countries as well. Trump’s Abraham Accords, initially greeted skeptically by Biden and the Democrats, was then championed by them as the way to improve the Middle East. In other words, a coalition of repressive states, including Netanyahu’s Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and hopefully Saudi Arabia were to take the lead in the region, paying little if any heed to Israel’s repression of Palestinians, just as the Arab states were paying little heed to the repression of their citizens. Hamas’ October 7 attack revealed the inadequacies of the Accords, built on the Metternichian principle of asserting collective state power over restless populations. Since the Accords were intended in large measure to counter Iran, their undoing is a clear victory for Tehran. Of longer term importance is that the U.S. commitment to the Accords and their inherent contempt for Palestinians and Arab populaces, reinforced the appeal of Iran as defenders of both.
Washington’s third failure was failing effectively
to directly counter Iranian influence in the region. As the product of a popular revolution and fearful of those seeking to undo it, the
Iranian government naturally assumed the role of spoiler of the regional system, a key
component of which was appealing to the downtrodden. It was dangerous enough when that was restricted to Shi’i, but now that Iran by virtue of its support for Hamas has broadened its appeal among Sunnis, the threat it poses to
American interests is substantially greater.
In the face of the Iranian challenge the U.S. has wavered between seeking to accommodate or
to intimidate it, neither successfully. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA which Obama orchestrated, Trump cancelled, and then Biden set about trying to restore, was a gift to the Iranians in that it placed no limits on their regional interventionism. By focusing entirely on the nuclear issue, it provided Tehran with carte blanche in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and even in Gaza. Now that in the wake of October 7 the U.S. is striking Iranian affiliated military targets in Syria and Iraq it is back to the
policy of the stick rather than the carrot. But these sticks are simply provocations, not deterrents. And they do not win support for the U.S. in the Arab world, nor even in Israel where they are seen as being insufficient deterrents to Iran. In sum, Tehran has outsmarted
Washington whether it is run by Democrats or Republicans. October 7 and its aftermath is yet another chapter in that long, sad saga.
At the core of these problems is denial of human dignity to far too many Middle Easterners and North Africans. With little hope
for the future, struggling daily to survive and to
In sum, Hamas and Iran have achieved a strategic victory but at a huge price to Palestinians, both of Gaza and the West Bank. But that price will be overlooked by all concerned except those who actually pay it. The focus will be on those deemed to be the guilty parties, which for most Middle Easterners will not be Hamas or Iran, but Israel, the U.S., and for many, their own Arab governments.
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