TIME
QUALITY SUPERVISION TAKES TIME
1 . Forecasting
With the nation ’ s highest caseloads , DCS must analyze statistical trends to determine where to focus its limited resources . Following the Risk-Need- Responsivity ( RNR ) framework , the first step of productive supervision entails matching people ’ s intervention intensity with their likelihood of reoffending ( i . e ., the Risk principle ). We are advancing knowledge in this area in two ways :
Integrated Dynamic Risk Assessment for Community Supervision ( IDRACS ):
With support from the National Institute of Justice , we are developing a new risk instrument to predict the probability of felony or violent-misdemeanor arrests for individuals on probation or parole . The IDRACS project has multiple objectives : ( a ) testing artificial intelligence / machine learning algorithms against traditional statistical models , ( b ) incorporating dynamic variables , ( c ) identifying protective factors , and ( d ) integrating uncertainty into predictions . In short , IDRACS will assess risk factors to inform supervision strategies in real-time .
Strike a Balance :
Regardless of academic findings or algorithms , the responsibility of implementing Person- Centered Supervision rests on the shoulders of officers . For instance , officers often exercise discretion when applying risk algorithms , but the impact of deviating from a risk tool is unclear . Therefore , this project examines the relationship between officer overrides and recidivism .
Research Partners : Anuar Assamidanov , Claremont Graduate University
Research Partners : John Speir , Applied Research Services ( ARS ) Chris Inkpen and Pamela Lattimore , Research Triangle Institute ( RTI )
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