The “hollowing out” of the labour market
Since 2008, US employment growth has become polarized, with the highest job creation rates
concentrated in either top-tier, high-wage jobs or low-skill, low-wage jobs.7 During the recession, the most severe employment losses occurred in mid-level, white- and blue-collar jobs;
and according to a key US report released in 2010, many of these jobs did not return.8
In Canada, the picture is somewhat different. Recent work by TD Bank shows that, while the
share of high-paying occupations has grown, the shares of both middle- and low-income jobs
have lost ground in terms of the growth rate.9 This decline has been most pronounced in
Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.
Clearly the labour force has morphed into something very different from what it was 25, or
even 10, years ago. In BC, employment has declined steadily in the resource and manufacturing
sectors, reducing the supply of traditional jobs, but has grown in the services sector.
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The employment outlook in BC
and the impact of demographics
Approximately 1.03 million job openings10 are
expected between 2010 and 2020, with almost
two-thirds of these positions being the result
of replacement demand due to the attrition
and death of older workers.11 However, some
of these occupational projections may be
too high. For example, the BC government
predicted there would be 17,290 job openings
in educational services between 2007 and
2017 (including teachers),12 but at present,
there are far more public school teachers in
the labour market than jobs. Moreover, a
growing number of educators are working
past 65. Between 2006 and 2007, there were
92 educators in BC over 65 (mostly teachers);
in 2011, there were 254.13
This gap between predictions and reality is
due partly to demographic trends and the
fact that workers are staying in their jobs
longer than originally expected, pushing
retirement past the age of 65. Data from Statistics Canada supports this trend: in 2012,
23.2% of the 65-69 age cohort was employed—
a significant increase compared to the 11%
employed in 2000.14 In addition, more retirees
are re-entering the labour force as consultants
or contractors, which can eliminate the need
to hire new workers.
7
David Autor, MIT Department of
Economics and National Bureau of
Economic Research, The Polarization of
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Job Opportunities in the U.S. Labor
Market—Implications for Employment and
Earnings, April 2010.
8
Ibid.
9
TD Bank Economics, Are Medium-skilled
Jobs in Canada Experiencing a HollowingOut, U.S.-style? (Special Report),
February 26, 2013.
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10
BC Ministry of Jobs, BC Labour Market
Outlook (2010-2020): Tourism and
Innovation, January 2013.
11
Ibid.
12
BC Ministry of Advanced Education and
Labour Market Development, Ten-year
Employment Outlook for British Columbia:
COPS B.C. Unique Scenario, 2007-2017,
August 2009.
13
Gary Mason, “Want bleak? Try getting a
14
Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
teaching job,” Globe and Mail, April 7, 2011.
THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
14
CPABC in Focus • Nov/Dec 2013
2012.