County Commission | The Magazine August 2017 | Page 26

FROM THE COVER County-by-County Population Trends, 2010-2040 W Alabama County Population Change, 2010-2040 inning coaches know they have to take the long view and build a program if they really want to get in the game. For county leaders, population trends are an essential part of that long view. Fortunately, the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research has recently released county-by-county population estimates through 2040. If you look no further than the state-level data, the state’s outlook for the coming decades falls somewhere short of fascinating. As a whole, Alabama’s population is projected to grow slowly for the next 20+ years, swelling by about 500,000 people (11.3 percent), according to researchers. An entirely different and much more dynamic picture emerges when you drill down to the local level. County-level projections for 2040 generally tell two stories: metro-area growth and rural decline. Individual counties can expect swings as big as 65 percent growth (Baldwin Co.) on one side and 30 percent decline (Lowndes Co.) on the other. Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, March 2017 County leaders know that change in either direction means challenges. Some commissioners will wrestle with traffic congestion and more people clamoring A L A B A M A G UA R D R A I L , I N C . Physical Address ~ for public services of all sorts. Others 60701 US Hwy 231 will have just as many miles of road Oneonta, AL 35121 as ever, but fewer dollars to maintain Catherine Huff them with because of population- Mailing Address ~ P O Box 126 President / Owner driven funding allocations. Cleveland, AL 35049 Researchers said the numbers projected in Alabama mirror a nationwide trend of population losses in counties that are outside large metropolitan areas, which has also been the pattern in the Office Phone: [phone] Yellowhammer State. A Fax: [phone] G In these latest projections, growth R E-mail: [email protected] is concentrated in about 40 percent of Alabama’s counties, basically those that boast faster-recovering Specializing in the Installation of Highway Guardrails, Signs & Fencing economies, solid employment forecasts and the highest or most-improved 26 | COUNTY COMMISSION